People could also check out that database for a sense of how these respondents’ views compare to some other quantitative estimates that have been publicly made (which is of course only a subset of all relevant views from all relevant people).
I’ve also now added to my database of existential risk estimates the six estimates indicated by the sentence “If you take the median response for each scenario and compare them, those (conditional) probabilities are fairly similar (between 10% and 12.5% for the five given scenarios, and 20% for “other scenarios”)”, in the “Conditional existential-risk-level estimates”.
Thanks for sharing these interesting and findings and write-up! This seems like a quite useful survey to have done, for similar reasons to why I think/hope work like Clarifying some key hypotheses in AI alignment, Crucial questions for longtermists, Database of existential risk estimates, and much of the prior work you cite would be useful.
People could also check out that database for a sense of how these respondents’ views compare to some other quantitative estimates that have been publicly made (which is of course only a subset of all relevant views from all relevant people).
I’ve also now added to my database of existential risk estimates the six estimates indicated by the sentence “If you take the median response for each scenario and compare them, those (conditional) probabilities are fairly similar (between 10% and 12.5% for the five given scenarios, and 20% for “other scenarios”)”, in the “Conditional existential-risk-level estimates”.
Thanks :)