To me the indicators suggest it’s likely gonna be fine. You can see the forecasts are pretty low and even if these resolve positive it probably won’t be a big deal to humans (see note in a sec)
I think it’s worth becoming well calibrated on risk ie only crying wolf when there is a wolf and right now I see no wolf, so as a community we improve our calibration by saying “bird flu will almost certainly be fine”
That said, it probably will involve farms full of chickens being tortured to death if they catch the disease. This is tragic. I suggest it requires a different comms strategy though.
Also there may be inflation with the political ramifications of that.
Let me know what would make the dashboard more useful to you.
Nice dashboard! It was confusing to see the hover text “formed from an average” when all three of the indicator values were higher than the ‘average’. I’d suggest making a concise version of the explanation in “how is the risk index calculated” more prominent, or removing the word “average” from the hover text.
Do you know of anything which directly addresses the argument I made here?
My vague impression is that the optimism I see is based on outside-view type forecasts, and people have mostly not taken inside views. I haven’t thought much about bird flu recently though.
Bird flu is probably fine right now. Let’s not cry wolf.
I’ve been looking into H5N1 bird flu and built this dashboard (https://birdflurisk.com)
To me the indicators suggest it’s likely gonna be fine. You can see the forecasts are pretty low and even if these resolve positive it probably won’t be a big deal to humans (see note in a sec)
I think it’s worth becoming well calibrated on risk ie only crying wolf when there is a wolf and right now I see no wolf, so as a community we improve our calibration by saying “bird flu will almost certainly be fine”
That said, it probably will involve farms full of chickens being tortured to death if they catch the disease. This is tragic. I suggest it requires a different comms strategy though.
Also there may be inflation with the political ramifications of that.
Let me know what would make the dashboard more useful to you.
Nice dashboard! It was confusing to see the hover text “formed from an average” when all three of the indicator values were higher than the ‘average’. I’d suggest making a concise version of the explanation in “how is the risk index calculated” more prominent, or removing the word “average” from the hover text.
Do you know of anything which directly addresses the argument I made here?
My vague impression is that the optimism I see is based on outside-view type forecasts, and people have mostly not taken inside views. I haven’t thought much about bird flu recently though.