This is a recent criticism of Givewell that I didn’t see responded to or accounted for in any clear way in the linked post. I haven’t read the whole thing closely yet, but no section appears to go over the considerations raised in that post. If they were sound, these criticisms incorporated into the analysis might make Givewell’s top-recommended charities look more ‘beatable’. I was wondering if I was missing something in the post, and Open Phil’s analysis either accounts for or incorporates for that possibility.
I’m not sure this is well-described as a “criticism of Givewell’s methodology for estimating the effectiveness of their recommended charities.” The problem seems to apply to cost-effectiveness estimates more broadly and the author explicitly says “Due to my familiarity with GiveWell, I mention it in a lot of examples. I don’t think the issues I raise in this post should be more concerning for GiveWell than other organizations associated with the EA movement”. As such, I don’t think these criticisms would make GiveWell’s recommendations look more ‘beatable.’ Indeed, one might even think that it’s partly because of considerations like those cited in the article you link, that GiveWell’s top charities remain hard to beat, while other areas, which prima facie seemed like they would be extremely promising have turned out to be not so promising.
Do you know if these take into account criticisms of Givewell’s methodology for estimating the effectiveness of their recommended charities?
Can you elaborate more about what you mean?
This is a recent criticism of Givewell that I didn’t see responded to or accounted for in any clear way in the linked post. I haven’t read the whole thing closely yet, but no section appears to go over the considerations raised in that post. If they were sound, these criticisms incorporated into the analysis might make Givewell’s top-recommended charities look more ‘beatable’. I was wondering if I was missing something in the post, and Open Phil’s analysis either accounts for or incorporates for that possibility.
I’m not sure this is well-described as a “criticism of Givewell’s methodology for estimating the effectiveness of their recommended charities.” The problem seems to apply to cost-effectiveness estimates more broadly and the author explicitly says “Due to my familiarity with GiveWell, I mention it in a lot of examples. I don’t think the issues I raise in this post should be more concerning for GiveWell than other organizations associated with the EA movement”. As such, I don’t think these criticisms would make GiveWell’s recommendations look more ‘beatable.’ Indeed, one might even think that it’s partly because of considerations like those cited in the article you link, that GiveWell’s top charities remain hard to beat, while other areas, which prima facie seemed like they would be extremely promising have turned out to be not so promising.