Thanks for the post! In addition to the caveats you mention, I’m a bit worried that many of your numbers came from me, especially as I’m a fairly junior (and also part-time) grantmaker. Not that I’m saying I have much better numbers now (otherwise I’d just update towards them). But just wanted to flag a potential issue with deference cascades.
For interested onlookers, note that my use of Linch’s numbers leads to:
~6x increase in grantmaker impact (due to non-grantmaking activities). Probably tonnes of room for disagreement.
~0.13x multiplier due to the proportion of grants where grantmakers can make a counterfactual difference. Probably not much more than 0.5-1 orders of magnitude available for disagreement.
~300M $/x-risk basis point estimate. Probably not much more than 1-2 order of magnitude available for disagreement.
Thanks for the post! In addition to the caveats you mention, I’m a bit worried that many of your numbers came from me, especially as I’m a fairly junior (and also part-time) grantmaker. Not that I’m saying I have much better numbers now (otherwise I’d just update towards them). But just wanted to flag a potential issue with deference cascades.
Thank you for flagging!
For interested onlookers, note that my use of Linch’s numbers leads to:
~6x increase in grantmaker impact (due to non-grantmaking activities). Probably tonnes of room for disagreement.
~0.13x multiplier due to the proportion of grants where grantmakers can make a counterfactual difference. Probably not much more than 0.5-1 orders of magnitude available for disagreement.
~300M $/x-risk basis point estimate. Probably not much more than 1-2 order of magnitude available for disagreement.