I don’t think it’s impossible—you could start from Harperin’s et al basic setup [1] and plug in some numbers about p doom, the long rate growth rate etc and get a market opinion.
I would also be interested in seeing the analysis of hedge fund experts and others. In our cursory lit review we didn’t come across any which was readily quantifiable (would love to learn if there is one!).
I don’t think it’s impossible—you could start from Harperin’s et al basic setup [1] and plug in some numbers about p doom, the long rate growth rate etc and get a market opinion.
I would also be interested in seeing the analysis of hedge fund experts and others. In our cursory lit review we didn’t come across any which was readily quantifiable (would love to learn if there is one!).
[1] https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8c7LycgtkypkgYjZx/agi-and-the-emh-markets-are-not-expecting-aligned-or