Yea, I assume the full version is impossible. But maybe there are at least some simpler statements that can be inferred? Like, “<10% of transformative AI by 2030.”
I’d be really curious to get a better read on what market specialists around this area (maybe select hedge fund teams around tech disruption?) would think.
I don’t think it’s impossible—you could start from Harperin’s et al basic setup [1] and plug in some numbers about p doom, the long rate growth rate etc and get a market opinion.
I would also be interested in seeing the analysis of hedge fund experts and others. In our cursory lit review we didn’t come across any which was readily quantifiable (would love to learn if there is one!).
Yea, I assume the full version is impossible. But maybe there are at least some simpler statements that can be inferred? Like, “<10% of transformative AI by 2030.”
I’d be really curious to get a better read on what market specialists around this area (maybe select hedge fund teams around tech disruption?) would think.
I don’t think it’s impossible—you could start from Harperin’s et al basic setup [1] and plug in some numbers about p doom, the long rate growth rate etc and get a market opinion.
I would also be interested in seeing the analysis of hedge fund experts and others. In our cursory lit review we didn’t come across any which was readily quantifiable (would love to learn if there is one!).
[1] https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8c7LycgtkypkgYjZx/agi-and-the-emh-markets-are-not-expecting-aligned-or