agreed, quick feedback loops are vital for good engagement + learning. we couldn’t figure out a good way to do it for the pilot, but this is definitely something we’re interested in building out for the next competition.
also, fermi estimation is a great idea — jane street sometimes runs an (unaffiliated) estimathon, but it would be cool to build in an estimation round, or something along those lines. do you have any other ideas for quickly-resolving rounds?
Metaculus is getting better at writing quickly-resolving questions, and we can probably help write some good ones for the next iteration of OPTIC.
There’s a certain eye for news that is interesting, forecastable, and short-term one develops. Our Beginner tournaments (current, 2023 Q1, 2022 Q4) explicitly only have questions that resolve within 1 week, so you can see some inspiration there.
yeah, i agree — i think we’ll probably rely more heavily on questions in that style for the next iteration of OPTIC. i don’t think we relied enough on existing questions/tournaments (see here).
great points!
agreed, quick feedback loops are vital for good engagement + learning. we couldn’t figure out a good way to do it for the pilot, but this is definitely something we’re interested in building out for the next competition.
also, fermi estimation is a great idea — jane street sometimes runs an (unaffiliated) estimathon, but it would be cool to build in an estimation round, or something along those lines. do you have any other ideas for quickly-resolving rounds?
thanks for your thoughts!
~ saul
Metaculus is getting better at writing quickly-resolving questions, and we can probably help write some good ones for the next iteration of OPTIC.
There’s a certain eye for news that is interesting, forecastable, and short-term one develops. Our Beginner tournaments (current, 2023 Q1, 2022 Q4) explicitly only have questions that resolve within 1 week, so you can see some inspiration there.
yeah, i agree — i think we’ll probably rely more heavily on questions in that style for the next iteration of OPTIC. i don’t think we relied enough on existing questions/tournaments (see here).