If we are so f*****g clever as to know what risks everyone else misses and how to avoid them, how come we didn’t spot that one of our best and brightest was actually a massive fraudster
And also the community’s reputation to a very significant degree. It was arguably the biggest mistake EA has made thus far (or the biggest one that has become obvious – could imagine we’re making other mistakes that aren’t yet obvious).
Do you think EAs should stop having opinions on extinction risks because they made a mistake in a different relevant domain (insufficient cynicism in the social realm)? I don’t see the logic here.
Also, to be pithy:
If we are so f*****g clever as to know what risks everyone else misses and how to avoid them, how come we didn’t spot that one of our best and brightest was actually a massive fraudster
I haven’t expected EAs to have any unusual skill at spotting risks.
EAs have been unusual at distinguishing risks based on their magnitude. The risks from FTX didn’t look much like the risk of human extinction.
But half our resources to combat human extinction were at risk due to risks to FTX. Why didn’t we take that more seriously.
And also the community’s reputation to a very significant degree. It was arguably the biggest mistake EA has made thus far (or the biggest one that has become obvious – could imagine we’re making other mistakes that aren’t yet obvious).
Do you think EAs should stop having opinions on extinction risks because they made a mistake in a different relevant domain (insufficient cynicism in the social realm)? I don’t see the logic here.