What groups of people do you see this most commonly with?
On priors, I would expect most ea aligned donors (or researchers /​ evaluators) to take things like this into account because they seem pretty fundamental.
I think people take this into account but not enough or something? I strongly suspect when evaluating research many people have a vague, and not sufficiently precise, sense of both the numerator and denominator, and their vague intuitions aren’t sufficiently linear. I know I do this myself unless it’s a grant I’m actively investigating.
This is easiest to notice in research because it’s both a) a large fraction of (non-global health and development) EA output and b) very gnarly. But I don’t think research is unusually gnarly in terms of EA outputs or grants, advocacy, comms, etc have similar issues.
What groups of people do you see this most commonly with?
On priors, I would expect most ea aligned donors (or researchers /​ evaluators) to take things like this into account because they seem pretty fundamental.
Mostly in EA meta...
I think people take this into account but not enough or something? I strongly suspect when evaluating research many people have a vague, and not sufficiently precise, sense of both the numerator and denominator, and their vague intuitions aren’t sufficiently linear. I know I do this myself unless it’s a grant I’m actively investigating.
This is easiest to notice in research because it’s both a) a large fraction of (non-global health and development) EA output and b) very gnarly. But I don’t think research is unusually gnarly in terms of EA outputs or grants, advocacy, comms, etc have similar issues.