Great post! I’m interested in how you are 80% confident that “Most experiences are negative / suffering dominates in the wild”. I can understand why you would lean towards it being negative, but why so confident given how little we still understand the experience of animals?
Yeah, I think this just seems pretty likely to me due to thinking that most animals are juveniles / die as juveniles, and the amount of time an animal has to be alive to accumulate good experiences to outweigh a painful death is probably higher than this. Things that have made me slightly less certain about this are me thinking it is more likely than I used to that adult animals in the wild live good lives, and me thinking that it is less likely than I used to that insects/some other invertebrates experience suffering, especially juvenile insects (though I probably still put a higher credence in this than many people).
I think it is pretty plausible I’m overconfident here though.
But, I also think this belief is mostly irrelevant to EAs / wild animal welfare advocates, unless you think there are special reasons improving welfare is easier on one side of the spectrum than the other, which I don’t really have strongly held opinions on.
The juvenile animal argument is interesting, as from a total “QALY” perspective, if animals die very young then unless their deaths are extremely suffering-ful and drawn out, the total time for suffering isn’t that large IMO.
Yep I completely agree that the belief is (or should be) mostly irrelevent to wild animal welfare advocates, and I think WAW might be more palatable to more people if it was emphasised less. “We have cheap and effective ways of helping wild animals live way better lives” is a better markteing tool than “Wild animals have bad live and are suffering soooo much so we have to do something” (aware I’m strawmanning for emphais a bit here). It only becomes relevant for arguments that look at whether the whole world is “net positive or negative”, which I find a bit unhelpful as that discussion doesn’t get us closer to making things better.
On that I appreciated these points
”On WAW specifically, my view is something like:
Large scale interventions we can be confident in aren’t that far away.
The intervention space is so large and impacting animals’ lives generally is so easy that the likelihood of finding really cost-effective things seems high.
These interventions will often not involve nearly as much “changing hearts and minds” or public advocacy as other animal welfare work, so could easily be a lot more tractable.
Great post! I’m interested in how you are 80% confident that “Most experiences are negative / suffering dominates in the wild”. I can understand why you would lean towards it being negative, but why so confident given how little we still understand the experience of animals?
Yeah, I think this just seems pretty likely to me due to thinking that most animals are juveniles / die as juveniles, and the amount of time an animal has to be alive to accumulate good experiences to outweigh a painful death is probably higher than this. Things that have made me slightly less certain about this are me thinking it is more likely than I used to that adult animals in the wild live good lives, and me thinking that it is less likely than I used to that insects/some other invertebrates experience suffering, especially juvenile insects (though I probably still put a higher credence in this than many people).
I think it is pretty plausible I’m overconfident here though.
But, I also think this belief is mostly irrelevant to EAs / wild animal welfare advocates, unless you think there are special reasons improving welfare is easier on one side of the spectrum than the other, which I don’t really have strongly held opinions on.
The juvenile animal argument is interesting, as from a total “QALY” perspective, if animals die very young then unless their deaths are extremely suffering-ful and drawn out, the total time for suffering isn’t that large IMO.
Yep I completely agree that the belief is (or should be) mostly irrelevent to wild animal welfare advocates, and I think WAW might be more palatable to more people if it was emphasised less. “We have cheap and effective ways of helping wild animals live way better lives” is a better markteing tool than “Wild animals have bad live and are suffering soooo much so we have to do something” (aware I’m strawmanning for emphais a bit here). It only becomes relevant for arguments that look at whether the whole world is “net positive or negative”, which I find a bit unhelpful as that discussion doesn’t get us closer to making things better.
On that I appreciated these points
”On WAW specifically, my view is something like:
Large scale interventions we can be confident in aren’t that far away.
The intervention space is so large and impacting animals’ lives generally is so easy that the likelihood of finding really cost-effective things seems high.
These interventions will often not involve nearly as much “changing hearts and minds” or public advocacy as other animal welfare work, so could easily be a lot more tractable.
Yeah, I agree with everything you say here RE WAW, on both how to present it and the usefulness of the net-positive or negative debate.