I didn’t write this post with the intention of criticising the importance of space governance, so I wouldn’t go as far as you. I think reframing space governance in the context of how it supports other cause areas reveals how important it really is. But space governance also has its own problems to deal with, so it’s not just a tool or a background consideration. Some (pressing) stuff that could be very bad in the 2030s (or earlier) without effective space governance:
China/Russia and the USA disagree over how to claim locations for a lunar base, and they both want to build one on the south pole. High potential for conflict in space (would also increase tensions on Earth). Really bad precedent for the long term future.
I think space mining companies have a high chance of accidentally changing the orbits of multiple asteroids, increasing the risk of short warning times from asteroids with suddenly altered orbits (or creation of lots of fragments that could damage satellites). No policy exists to protect against this risk.
Earth’s orbit is getting very full of debris and satellites. Another few anti-satellite weapons tests or a disaster involving a meteroid shower may trigger Kessler syndrome. Will Elon Musk de-orbit all of his thousands of Starlink satellites?
The footprints of the first humans to ever set foot on another celestial body still exist on the moon. They will be destroyed by lunar plumes caused by mining in the 2030s—this will be a huge blow to the long term future (I think it could even be the greatest cultural heritage of all time to a spacefaring civilisation and we’re gonna lose it). All it takes is one small box around some of the footprints to protect 90% of the value.
Earth’s orbit is filled with debris. The moon’s orbit is smaller and we can’t just get rid of satellites by burning them in the atmosphere. No policy exists to set a good precedent around that yet so the moon’s orbit will probably end up being even worse than Earth’s—people are already dodging each other’s satellites around the moon, and ESA & NASA want to build whole networks for moon internet.
Agree there are valid space policy considerations (and I could add to that list)[1], but I think lack of tractability is a bigger problem than neglect.[2] Everyone involved in space already knows ASAT weapons are a terrible idea, they’re technically banned since 1966, but yes, tests have happened despite that because superpowers gotta superpower. As with many other international relations problems—and space is more important than some of those and less than others - the problem is lack of coordination and enforceability rather than lack of awareness that problems might exist. Similarly Elon’s obligation to deorbit Starlink at end of life is linked to SpaceX’s FCC licence and parallel ESA regulation exists.[3] If he decides to gut the FCC and disregard it, it won’t be from lack of study into congested orbital space or lack of awareness the problem exists.
“Examine environmental effects of deorbiting masses of satellites into the mesosphere and potential implications for future LEO deorbiting policy” would be at the top of my personal list for timeliness and terrestrial impact...
I didn’t write this post with the intention of criticising the importance of space governance, so I wouldn’t go as far as you. I think reframing space governance in the context of how it supports other cause areas reveals how important it really is. But space governance also has its own problems to deal with, so it’s not just a tool or a background consideration. Some (pressing) stuff that could be very bad in the 2030s (or earlier) without effective space governance:
China/Russia and the USA disagree over how to claim locations for a lunar base, and they both want to build one on the south pole. High potential for conflict in space (would also increase tensions on Earth). Really bad precedent for the long term future.
I think space mining companies have a high chance of accidentally changing the orbits of multiple asteroids, increasing the risk of short warning times from asteroids with suddenly altered orbits (or creation of lots of fragments that could damage satellites). No policy exists to protect against this risk.
Earth’s orbit is getting very full of debris and satellites. Another few anti-satellite weapons tests or a disaster involving a meteroid shower may trigger Kessler syndrome. Will Elon Musk de-orbit all of his thousands of Starlink satellites?
The footprints of the first humans to ever set foot on another celestial body still exist on the moon. They will be destroyed by lunar plumes caused by mining in the 2030s—this will be a huge blow to the long term future (I think it could even be the greatest cultural heritage of all time to a spacefaring civilisation and we’re gonna lose it). All it takes is one small box around some of the footprints to protect 90% of the value.
Earth’s orbit is filled with debris. The moon’s orbit is smaller and we can’t just get rid of satellites by burning them in the atmosphere. No policy exists to set a good precedent around that yet so the moon’s orbit will probably end up being even worse than Earth’s—people are already dodging each other’s satellites around the moon, and ESA & NASA want to build whole networks for moon internet.
Well I did say I went further than you!
Agree there are valid space policy considerations (and I could add to that list)[1], but I think lack of tractability is a bigger problem than neglect.[2] Everyone involved in space already knows ASAT weapons are a terrible idea, they’re technically banned since 1966, but yes, tests have happened despite that because superpowers gotta superpower. As with many other international relations problems—and space is more important than some of those and less than others - the problem is lack of coordination and enforceability rather than lack of awareness that problems might exist. Similarly Elon’s obligation to deorbit Starlink at end of life is linked to SpaceX’s FCC licence and parallel ESA regulation exists.[3] If he decides to gut the FCC and disregard it, it won’t be from lack of study into congested orbital space or lack of awareness the problem exists.
“Examine environmental effects of deorbiting masses of satellites into the mesosphere and potential implications for future LEO deorbiting policy” would be at the top of my personal list for timeliness and terrestrial impact...
And above all, am struggling to see the marginal impact being bigger than health. as 80k suggested.
It’s also not in SpaceX’s interests to jeopardise LEO because they extract more economic value from that space than anyone else...