I feel confused about this response. Youâre asking for people to give you examples of a thing occurring, Iâm asking by what date range you wish to see examples in.
Okay; I guess I was confused by your question because I thought Iâd said that in the main doc.
To repeat and with added explanation: Only opinions from before ChatGPT count.
This is because ChatGPT moved the Overton window and changed which sorts of opinions would earn you the horror of contemptuous looks and lowered status, and my negative model of OpenPhil is that they miraculously arrived at a set of opinions which would balance which sort of looks they got from a weighted set of people they cared about. So whatever happened after the ChatGPT Moment is no longer reflective of what I guess to be the organizational and cognitive processes underlying their earlier failure; and itâs fair to ask about this because the earlier stuff was consequential. (Though it didnât move the needle as such; in retrospect and with benefit of hindsight, the needle started at âDeadâ and stayed at âDeadâ through everything MIRI or OpenPhil tried or failed at.)
While it is now possible to lose a lot of credit for having >30yr median timelines, it is no longer possible to earn significant credit for putting your timelines under 2055 because that is already what âthe weighted average of facial expressions on people you care aboutâ is telling you to believe and there are no big social penalties for believing it.
I feel confused about this response. Youâre asking for people to give you examples of a thing occurring, Iâm asking by what date range you wish to see examples in.
Okay; I guess I was confused by your question because I thought Iâd said that in the main doc.
To repeat and with added explanation: Only opinions from before ChatGPT count.
This is because ChatGPT moved the Overton window and changed which sorts of opinions would earn you the horror of contemptuous looks and lowered status, and my negative model of OpenPhil is that they miraculously arrived at a set of opinions which would balance which sort of looks they got from a weighted set of people they cared about. So whatever happened after the ChatGPT Moment is no longer reflective of what I guess to be the organizational and cognitive processes underlying their earlier failure; and itâs fair to ask about this because the earlier stuff was consequential. (Though it didnât move the needle as such; in retrospect and with benefit of hindsight, the needle started at âDeadâ and stayed at âDeadâ through everything MIRI or OpenPhil tried or failed at.)
While it is now possible to lose a lot of credit for having >30yr median timelines, it is no longer possible to earn significant credit for putting your timelines under 2055 because that is already what âthe weighted average of facial expressions on people you care aboutâ is telling you to believe and there are no big social penalties for believing it.
Thanks!