I feel confused about this response. You’re asking for people to give you examples of a thing occurring, I’m asking by what date range you wish to see examples in.
Okay; I guess I was confused by your question because I thought I’d said that in the main doc.
To repeat and with added explanation: Only opinions from before ChatGPT count.
This is because ChatGPT moved the Overton window and changed which sorts of opinions would earn you the horror of contemptuous looks and lowered status, and my negative model of OpenPhil is that they miraculously arrived at a set of opinions which would balance which sort of looks they got from a weighted set of people they cared about. So whatever happened after the ChatGPT Moment is no longer reflective of what I guess to be the organizational and cognitive processes underlying their earlier failure; and it’s fair to ask about this because the earlier stuff was consequential. (Though it didn’t move the needle as such; in retrospect and with benefit of hindsight, the needle started at “Dead” and stayed at “Dead” through everything MIRI or OpenPhil tried or failed at.)
While it is now possible to lose a lot of credit for having >30yr median timelines, it is no longer possible to earn significant credit for putting your timelines under 2055 because that is already what “the weighted average of facial expressions on people you care about” is telling you to believe and there are no big social penalties for believing it.
It would meet my criteria for being smarter than a potted plant, I suppose.
The harm’s already been done.
I feel confused about this response. You’re asking for people to give you examples of a thing occurring, I’m asking by what date range you wish to see examples in.
Okay; I guess I was confused by your question because I thought I’d said that in the main doc.
To repeat and with added explanation: Only opinions from before ChatGPT count.
This is because ChatGPT moved the Overton window and changed which sorts of opinions would earn you the horror of contemptuous looks and lowered status, and my negative model of OpenPhil is that they miraculously arrived at a set of opinions which would balance which sort of looks they got from a weighted set of people they cared about. So whatever happened after the ChatGPT Moment is no longer reflective of what I guess to be the organizational and cognitive processes underlying their earlier failure; and it’s fair to ask about this because the earlier stuff was consequential. (Though it didn’t move the needle as such; in retrospect and with benefit of hindsight, the needle started at “Dead” and stayed at “Dead” through everything MIRI or OpenPhil tried or failed at.)
While it is now possible to lose a lot of credit for having >30yr median timelines, it is no longer possible to earn significant credit for putting your timelines under 2055 because that is already what “the weighted average of facial expressions on people you care about” is telling you to believe and there are no big social penalties for believing it.
Thanks!
Don’t underestimate potted plants!