This comment isnāt really a reply, but is about the same career idea, so I figured it might make sense to put it here.
At EAGx, I talked with someone interested in history, so I made some notes about topics Iād be excited to see historians explore (or at least to see non-historians explore in a similar style), as well as some relevant resources. Iāll share those notes here, in case theyāre helpful to others.
Disclaimer: These are quick thoughts from someone (me) whoās only ~6 months into doing longtermist research, and who has no background in academic history. Also, this list of topics is neither comprehensive nor prioritised.
History of economic, technological, moral, etc. growth and progress (this post already mentioned this topic)
Historical scenarios of movements growing, having influence, collapsing, etc. (this post already mentioned this one) (some relevant sources)
This could provide evidence relevant to what might happen to EA or related movements and how to steer things well.
History of proliferation and nonproliferation efforts in the case of nuclear weapons or other military technologies/āweapons
History of efforts to regulate technology (or otherwise influence the direction or applications of technological development)
See Grace and Grace for works I havenāt actually read but that seem relevant to this topic or the above topic.
History of predictions, predictions of things like extinction or collapse, millenarianism, and how often people have been right vs wrong about these and other things
Knowing more about this would help us know how much to trust predictions of various kinds, which is relevant to things like whether weāre at the Hinge of History and how high existential risk is. We currently seem to know very little about this. See e.g. Muehlhauser, me, and me again.
History of legal and other efforts to represent future generations or other neglected populations (animals, slaves, etc.)
Counterfactual history related to what factors mightāve led the Nazi regime, Soviet Union, etc. to last, and how long it wouldāve lasted if those factors had been present.
This could inform how high the risk from dystopias/ātotalitarianism is, etc.
Iād guess that the question of what factors might have led those regimes to last wouldnāt be neglected by mainstream historians, but that the question of just how long they might have lasted is probably neglected. But this is purely a guess.
It seems to me that a recurring theme is that EAs without a background in history have done relatively brief analyses of these topics, and then other people have been very interested and maybe made big decisions based on it, but thereās been no deeper or more rigorous follow-up. Iād therefore be quite excited to see more historians (or similar types) in/āinteracting with EA. (That said, I have no specific reason to believe this is a more valuable career path that then others mentioned in this post; I think it might just be the lack of EAs on this career path happens to be more noticeable to me as I do my current work. Also, Iām not saying the existing analyses were badāIāve very much appreciated many of them.)
A potential counterexample to that ārecurring themeā is AI Impactsā research into āhistoric cases of discontinuously fast technological progressā. My understanding is that that research has indeed been done by EAs without a background in history, but it also seem quite thorough and rigorous, and possibly more useful for informing key decisions about than work on that topic by most academic historians wouldāve been. (I hold that view very tentatively.) Iām not sure if thatās evidence for or against the value of EAs becoming historians.
By the way, Iāve added this comment to A central directory for open research questions. So if anyone reading this thinks of other topics worth mentioning, or knows of other collections of topics it would be high-priority from an EA perspective for historians to look into, please comment about that below.
Semi-relevant update: Iāve now created a History tag, and listed some posts there. Posts with this tag might be useful for EAs considering this career idea, as they might provide some ideas about the sorts of topics from history EAs are interested in, and about how historical research methods can be useful for EA.
Thanks (as often) for this list! Iām wondering, might you be up for putting it into a slightly more fomal standalone post or google doc that we could potentially link to from the blurb?
Really love how youāre collecting resources on so many different important topics!
(I also encourage people in that post to suggest additional topics they think itād be good to explore, so hopefully the post can become something of a āhubā for that.)
Good points!
This comment isnāt really a reply, but is about the same career idea, so I figured it might make sense to put it here.
At EAGx, I talked with someone interested in history, so I made some notes about topics Iād be excited to see historians explore (or at least to see non-historians explore in a similar style), as well as some relevant resources. Iāll share those notes here, in case theyāre helpful to others.
Disclaimer: These are quick thoughts from someone (me) whoās only ~6 months into doing longtermist research, and who has no background in academic history. Also, this list of topics is neither comprehensive nor prioritised.
History of economic, technological, moral, etc. growth and progress (this post already mentioned this topic)
This could give us evidence not just about whatās likely to happen from where we are now, but also about things like how severe and lasting the consequences of civilizational collapse and global (but non-existential) catastrophes are, and thus how much we should prioritise work on those issues. See e.g. The long-term significance of reducing global catastrophic risks.
History of societal collapse and recovery (some relevant sources)
Historical scenarios of movements growing, having influence, collapsing, etc. (this post already mentioned this one) (some relevant sources)
This could provide evidence relevant to what might happen to EA or related movements and how to steer things well.
History of proliferation and nonproliferation efforts in the case of nuclear weapons or other military technologies/āweapons
History of efforts to regulate technology (or otherwise influence the direction or applications of technological development)
See Grace and Grace for works I havenāt actually read but that seem relevant to this topic or the above topic.
History of predictions, predictions of things like extinction or collapse, millenarianism, and how often people have been right vs wrong about these and other things
Knowing more about this would help us know how much to trust predictions of various kinds, which is relevant to things like whether weāre at the Hinge of History and how high existential risk is. We currently seem to know very little about this. See e.g. Muehlhauser, me, and me again.
History of legal and other efforts to represent future generations or other neglected populations (animals, slaves, etc.)
History of moral circle expansion
Counterfactual history related to what factors mightāve led the Nazi regime, Soviet Union, etc. to last, and how long it wouldāve lasted if those factors had been present.
This could inform how high the risk from dystopias/ātotalitarianism is, etc.
Iād guess that the question of what factors might have led those regimes to last wouldnāt be neglected by mainstream historians, but that the question of just how long they might have lasted is probably neglected. But this is purely a guess.
And as a broadly relevant resource here, there was an EAG 2018 talk entitled From the Neolithic Revolution to the Far Future: How to do EA History.
It seems to me that a recurring theme is that EAs without a background in history have done relatively brief analyses of these topics, and then other people have been very interested and maybe made big decisions based on it, but thereās been no deeper or more rigorous follow-up. Iād therefore be quite excited to see more historians (or similar types) in/āinteracting with EA. (That said, I have no specific reason to believe this is a more valuable career path that then others mentioned in this post; I think it might just be the lack of EAs on this career path happens to be more noticeable to me as I do my current work. Also, Iām not saying the existing analyses were badāIāve very much appreciated many of them.)
A potential counterexample to that ārecurring themeā is AI Impactsā research into āhistoric cases of discontinuously fast technological progressā. My understanding is that that research has indeed been done by EAs without a background in history, but it also seem quite thorough and rigorous, and possibly more useful for informing key decisions about than work on that topic by most academic historians wouldāve been. (I hold that view very tentatively.) Iām not sure if thatās evidence for or against the value of EAs becoming historians.
By the way, Iāve added this comment to A central directory for open research questions. So if anyone reading this thinks of other topics worth mentioning, or knows of other collections of topics it would be high-priority from an EA perspective for historians to look into, please comment about that below.
Semi-relevant update: Iāve now created a History tag, and listed some posts there. Posts with this tag might be useful for EAs considering this career idea, as they might provide some ideas about the sorts of topics from history EAs are interested in, and about how historical research methods can be useful for EA.
Hey Michael,
Thanks (as often) for this list! Iām wondering, might you be up for putting it into a slightly more fomal standalone post or google doc that we could potentially link to from the blurb?
Really love how youāre collecting resources on so many different important topics!
Happy to hear this list seems helpful, and thanks for the suggestion! Iāve now polished & slightly expanded my comment into a top level post: Some history topics it might be very valuable to investigate.
(I also encourage people in that post to suggest additional topics they think itād be good to explore, so hopefully the post can become something of a āhubā for that.)
Great! Linked.