1) Hard to predict the consequences, of course—so many possible ones. Lots of noise and variability. Probably best to focus on the most likely ones, namely a smallish shift toward a pro-peace stance and a small increase in the rationality of political decision-making by readers.
2) I think this is the tougher question. How to estimate this is really hard! That’s why I was suggesting thinking in terms of intuitive gut reactions might be helpful.
Some simple observations.
To perform such a QALY estimate you need
A credible model for predicting the consequences of possible responses
An estimate of how likely your advocacy is to effect policy
1 is something you need to even know what the best response it (and I’m currently not sure whether you have it).
2 sounds like something that should have been researched by many people by now, but I’m far from an expert so no specific suggestions.
Good ideas!
1) Hard to predict the consequences, of course—so many possible ones. Lots of noise and variability. Probably best to focus on the most likely ones, namely a smallish shift toward a pro-peace stance and a small increase in the rationality of political decision-making by readers.
2) I think this is the tougher question. How to estimate this is really hard! That’s why I was suggesting thinking in terms of intuitive gut reactions might be helpful.