1) Hard to predict the consequences, of course—so many possible ones. Lots of noise and variability. Probably best to focus on the most likely ones, namely a smallish shift toward a pro-peace stance and a small increase in the rationality of political decision-making by readers.
2) I think this is the tougher question. How to estimate this is really hard! That’s why I was suggesting thinking in terms of intuitive gut reactions might be helpful.
Good ideas!
1) Hard to predict the consequences, of course—so many possible ones. Lots of noise and variability. Probably best to focus on the most likely ones, namely a smallish shift toward a pro-peace stance and a small increase in the rationality of political decision-making by readers.
2) I think this is the tougher question. How to estimate this is really hard! That’s why I was suggesting thinking in terms of intuitive gut reactions might be helpful.