Here we’re also talking about capabilities rather than harm. If you want to find out how fast cars will be in 5 years, asking the auto industry seems like a reasonable move.
Is it? Wouldn’t you expect the auto industry to have incentives to exaggerate their possible future accomplishments in developing faster cars because it has a direct influence on how much governments will prioritise it as a means of transport, subsidise R&D, etc.?
I wouldn’t totally defer to them, but I wouldn’t totally ignore them either. (And this is mostly besides the point since I’m overall I’m critical of using their forecasts and my argument doesn’t rest on this.)
I wouldn’t consider car company CEOs a serious data point here for the same reasons. I agree it seems a reasonable move but I don’t think it actually is.
Asking workers and technicians within companies, especially off the record though I would consider a useful data point, although still biased of course.
I would have thought there might even be data on the accuracy of industry head predictions, because there would be a lot of news sources to look back on which could now be checked for accuracy. Might have a look.
Here we’re also talking about capabilities rather than harm. If you want to find out how fast cars will be in 5 years, asking the auto industry seems like a reasonable move.
Is it? Wouldn’t you expect the auto industry to have incentives to exaggerate their possible future accomplishments in developing faster cars because it has a direct influence on how much governments will prioritise it as a means of transport, subsidise R&D, etc.?
I wouldn’t totally defer to them, but I wouldn’t totally ignore them either. (And this is mostly besides the point since I’m overall I’m critical of using their forecasts and my argument doesn’t rest on this.)
I wouldn’t consider car company CEOs a serious data point here for the same reasons. I agree it seems a reasonable move but I don’t think it actually is.
Asking workers and technicians within companies, especially off the record though I would consider a useful data point, although still biased of course.
I would have thought there might even be data on the accuracy of industry head predictions, because there would be a lot of news sources to look back on which could now be checked for accuracy. Might have a look.