Thanks for this response—I am not an expert on chip production, and your response on fabrication is clearly better informed than mine.
However, “Policy changes in 2025 could start affecting Chinese AI models in 2027 (for chips) and around 2030 (for SME) already.”
I now agree with this—and I was told in other comments that I didn’t sufficiently distinguish between these two, so thanks for clarifying that. But 2030 for starting to help get more chips is long timelines, and the people you cite with 2029-2030 timelines expect it to be playing out already then, so starting to get more chips then seems irrelevant in those worlds.
Thanks for this response—I am not an expert on chip production, and your response on fabrication is clearly better informed than mine.
However, “Policy changes in 2025 could start affecting Chinese AI models in 2027 (for chips) and around 2030 (for SME) already.”
I now agree with this—and I was told in other comments that I didn’t sufficiently distinguish between these two, so thanks for clarifying that. But 2030 for starting to help get more chips is long timelines, and the people you cite with 2029-2030 timelines expect it to be playing out already then, so starting to get more chips then seems irrelevant in those worlds.