Iâve found this review (2015) of âcritical metalsââroughly, those metals that are most needed and weâd likely to see a short in supply. And this recent review (2020) of studies on likely future (2050) demand for these metals. Iâm not that sure whether these would be crucial in their impact on economic growth, even if theyâd have limited supply; What would be the problem of having fewer jet engines?
Regarding solar energy, I havenât checked the calculations or extrapolated to the future, but taking a look at this I feel optimistic. They say that the Sahara dessert, for example, would be enough space to supply energy to the whole world 20 times over (although they didnât take into account loss of energy in transition and naturally itâs not that practical).
Iâd love it if someone would take a deeper dive into this topic. Toby Ord talks a bit about related issues of resource scarcity in The Precipice (Chapter 4, âAnthropogenic Risksâ, Section âEnvironmental Damageâ) and also thinks further research is needed (from an x-risk point of view, though).
More concerning than jet engines might be the high efficiency natural gas turbines for generating electricity. However, it looks like Ruthenium is even better than Rhenium for these applications. And in general, you can avoid rare earth metals and just accept slightly lower performance for combustion turbines, wind turbines, electric car motors, LED lights, solar cells, etc.
Thatâs great, thank you!
Iâve found this review (2015) of âcritical metalsââroughly, those metals that are most needed and weâd likely to see a short in supply. And this recent review (2020) of studies on likely future (2050) demand for these metals. Iâm not that sure whether these would be crucial in their impact on economic growth, even if theyâd have limited supply; What would be the problem of having fewer jet engines?
Regarding solar energy, I havenât checked the calculations or extrapolated to the future, but taking a look at this I feel optimistic. They say that the Sahara dessert, for example, would be enough space to supply energy to the whole world 20 times over (although they didnât take into account loss of energy in transition and naturally itâs not that practical).
Iâd love it if someone would take a deeper dive into this topic. Toby Ord talks a bit about related issues of resource scarcity in The Precipice (Chapter 4, âAnthropogenic Risksâ, Section âEnvironmental Damageâ) and also thinks further research is needed (from an x-risk point of view, though).
More concerning than jet engines might be the high efficiency natural gas turbines for generating electricity. However, it looks like Ruthenium is even better than Rhenium for these applications. And in general, you can avoid rare earth metals and just accept slightly lower performance for combustion turbines, wind turbines, electric car motors, LED lights, solar cells, etc.