The most worrying situation is a Cuban Missile-style crisis with Russia. I’ve discussed Trump’s possible relations with Putin, but for now all we need to do is accept that such a stand-off could happen.
The Cuban Missile Crisis happened because of heavy distrust between the US and USSR, and no similar nuclear crisis has ever occurred. There were two contributing issues to the crisis: a fear of a Soviet first strike and a fear of a US invasion of a Soviet ally. These two issues have been absent from relations between the US and other major nuclear powers. It’s all dependent upon the idea of a major heightening in foreign aggression.
I also think Trump would be less hesitant to use or develop biological weapons.
What purpose could they serve? If pandemic bio weapons were useful then we would expect other nations to already have serious development in that domain. There are other countries which are noncompliant with international norms and they don’t develop pandemic bioweapons. It’s not much of a useful asset to have in any plausible scenario.
The post-war liberal order has kept us safe. The liberal global order set up by the West following the end of WWII rests on three pillars: trade, security alliances and liberal democratic values – all backed up by American military power.
It’s actually not clear that trade does anything to make us safer. Empirical analysis of wars and trade relations has shown that trade partners are overall not less likely to fight than non trading partners, and in some contexts they are more likely (Edit for source: Katherine Barbieri 1996, “Economic Interdependence: A path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict?”). I think there are a few scholars who still make the case for trade reducing conflict but I’m not sure what the evidence is.
Democratic peace occurs between liberal democracies, but there’s not much of a case to be made for it reducing the probability of a war with any country which is not a liberal democracy.
Thanks for commenting! I’ll try to answer your points in turn.
Nuclear weapons
I was using the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example of a nuclear stand-off. I’m not saying a very similar crisis will occur, but that other stand-offs are possible in the future. Other examples of stand-offs include Nixon and the Yom Kippur War, or Reagan and Able Archer. There have many ‘close calls’ and stand-offs over the years, and there could be one in the future e.g. over the Baltics. Trump’s character seems particularly ill-suited to nuclear stand-offs, so increases risk.
Pandemics
Many countries have had biological weapons programs: for example the US, UK, USSR, Japan, Germany, Iraq and South Africa. I agree that they’re difficult to control and would likely hurt the country that used them as well as the target—but that hasn’t stopped those countries. The development and use of biological weapons has been constrained by the Convention and surrounding norms. I think Trump threatens those norms, and so increases risk.
Liberal global order
Very interesting fact about trade and war there, although she is looking at the period 1870-1938 and I’m talking about post-1945. And yes I agree with you about democratic peace theory. My point is more general, that the liberal global order has kept us safe—to take one example we haven’t had a serious great power war. Trump threatens that order, and so increases risk.
Nuclear weapons I was using the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example of a nuclear stand-off. I’m not saying a very similar crisis will occur, but that other stand-offs are possible in the future. Other examples of stand-offs include Nixon and the Yom Kippur War, or Reagan and Able Archer. There have many ‘close calls’ and stand-offs over the years, and there could be one in the future e.g. over the Baltics. Trump’s character seems particularly ill-suited to nuclear stand-offs, so increases risk.
Yes but those other examples didn’t pivot around the president as the key negotiator. Able Archer happened behind the scenes with Reagan kept out of the script. Yes, Reagan’s ‘evil empire’ rhetoric in the 80s contributed to Soviet fears leading into it, but Trump’s done the exact opposite with Russia and nothing comparable with any other country. Nixon didn’t play a large role in 1973, it was mostly an Israeli thing. The Norwegian missile alert and Petrov alarms were also brief windows without any instance of diplomacy. In those cases all that matters is the adversary’s prior expectation of a first strike, and Trump will probably be perceived by foreign analysts as equally or less likely to mount a first strike during ordinary diplomatic conditions than other leaders, since he’s populist and isolationist.
Many countries have had biological weapons programs: for example the US, UK, USSR, Japan, Germany, Iraq and South Africa. I agree that they’re difficult to control and would likely hurt the country that used them as well as the target—but that hasn’t stopped those countries. The development and use of biological weapons has been constrained by the Convention and surrounding norms. I think Trump threatens those norms, and so increases risk.
Don’t confuse bioweapons with pandemics and biological catastrophic risks in general. The bioweapons which are useful and have been investigated by states are precisely those which don’t pose pandemic risks, e.g. Anthrax.
The Cuban Missile Crisis happened because of heavy distrust between the US and USSR, and no similar nuclear crisis has ever occurred. There were two contributing issues to the crisis: a fear of a Soviet first strike and a fear of a US invasion of a Soviet ally. These two issues have been absent from relations between the US and other major nuclear powers. It’s all dependent upon the idea of a major heightening in foreign aggression.
What purpose could they serve? If pandemic bio weapons were useful then we would expect other nations to already have serious development in that domain. There are other countries which are noncompliant with international norms and they don’t develop pandemic bioweapons. It’s not much of a useful asset to have in any plausible scenario.
It’s actually not clear that trade does anything to make us safer. Empirical analysis of wars and trade relations has shown that trade partners are overall not less likely to fight than non trading partners, and in some contexts they are more likely (Edit for source: Katherine Barbieri 1996, “Economic Interdependence: A path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict?”). I think there are a few scholars who still make the case for trade reducing conflict but I’m not sure what the evidence is.
Democratic peace occurs between liberal democracies, but there’s not much of a case to be made for it reducing the probability of a war with any country which is not a liberal democracy.
Thanks for commenting! I’ll try to answer your points in turn.
Nuclear weapons I was using the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example of a nuclear stand-off. I’m not saying a very similar crisis will occur, but that other stand-offs are possible in the future. Other examples of stand-offs include Nixon and the Yom Kippur War, or Reagan and Able Archer. There have many ‘close calls’ and stand-offs over the years, and there could be one in the future e.g. over the Baltics. Trump’s character seems particularly ill-suited to nuclear stand-offs, so increases risk.
Pandemics Many countries have had biological weapons programs: for example the US, UK, USSR, Japan, Germany, Iraq and South Africa. I agree that they’re difficult to control and would likely hurt the country that used them as well as the target—but that hasn’t stopped those countries. The development and use of biological weapons has been constrained by the Convention and surrounding norms. I think Trump threatens those norms, and so increases risk.
Liberal global order Very interesting fact about trade and war there, although she is looking at the period 1870-1938 and I’m talking about post-1945. And yes I agree with you about democratic peace theory. My point is more general, that the liberal global order has kept us safe—to take one example we haven’t had a serious great power war. Trump threatens that order, and so increases risk.
Yes but those other examples didn’t pivot around the president as the key negotiator. Able Archer happened behind the scenes with Reagan kept out of the script. Yes, Reagan’s ‘evil empire’ rhetoric in the 80s contributed to Soviet fears leading into it, but Trump’s done the exact opposite with Russia and nothing comparable with any other country. Nixon didn’t play a large role in 1973, it was mostly an Israeli thing. The Norwegian missile alert and Petrov alarms were also brief windows without any instance of diplomacy. In those cases all that matters is the adversary’s prior expectation of a first strike, and Trump will probably be perceived by foreign analysts as equally or less likely to mount a first strike during ordinary diplomatic conditions than other leaders, since he’s populist and isolationist.
Don’t confuse bioweapons with pandemics and biological catastrophic risks in general. The bioweapons which are useful and have been investigated by states are precisely those which don’t pose pandemic risks, e.g. Anthrax.