Thanks for commenting! I’ll try to answer your points in turn.
Nuclear weapons
I was using the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example of a nuclear stand-off. I’m not saying a very similar crisis will occur, but that other stand-offs are possible in the future. Other examples of stand-offs include Nixon and the Yom Kippur War, or Reagan and Able Archer. There have many ‘close calls’ and stand-offs over the years, and there could be one in the future e.g. over the Baltics. Trump’s character seems particularly ill-suited to nuclear stand-offs, so increases risk.
Pandemics
Many countries have had biological weapons programs: for example the US, UK, USSR, Japan, Germany, Iraq and South Africa. I agree that they’re difficult to control and would likely hurt the country that used them as well as the target—but that hasn’t stopped those countries. The development and use of biological weapons has been constrained by the Convention and surrounding norms. I think Trump threatens those norms, and so increases risk.
Liberal global order
Very interesting fact about trade and war there, although she is looking at the period 1870-1938 and I’m talking about post-1945. And yes I agree with you about democratic peace theory. My point is more general, that the liberal global order has kept us safe—to take one example we haven’t had a serious great power war. Trump threatens that order, and so increases risk.
Nuclear weapons I was using the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example of a nuclear stand-off. I’m not saying a very similar crisis will occur, but that other stand-offs are possible in the future. Other examples of stand-offs include Nixon and the Yom Kippur War, or Reagan and Able Archer. There have many ‘close calls’ and stand-offs over the years, and there could be one in the future e.g. over the Baltics. Trump’s character seems particularly ill-suited to nuclear stand-offs, so increases risk.
Yes but those other examples didn’t pivot around the president as the key negotiator. Able Archer happened behind the scenes with Reagan kept out of the script. Yes, Reagan’s ‘evil empire’ rhetoric in the 80s contributed to Soviet fears leading into it, but Trump’s done the exact opposite with Russia and nothing comparable with any other country. Nixon didn’t play a large role in 1973, it was mostly an Israeli thing. The Norwegian missile alert and Petrov alarms were also brief windows without any instance of diplomacy. In those cases all that matters is the adversary’s prior expectation of a first strike, and Trump will probably be perceived by foreign analysts as equally or less likely to mount a first strike during ordinary diplomatic conditions than other leaders, since he’s populist and isolationist.
Many countries have had biological weapons programs: for example the US, UK, USSR, Japan, Germany, Iraq and South Africa. I agree that they’re difficult to control and would likely hurt the country that used them as well as the target—but that hasn’t stopped those countries. The development and use of biological weapons has been constrained by the Convention and surrounding norms. I think Trump threatens those norms, and so increases risk.
Don’t confuse bioweapons with pandemics and biological catastrophic risks in general. The bioweapons which are useful and have been investigated by states are precisely those which don’t pose pandemic risks, e.g. Anthrax.
Thanks for commenting! I’ll try to answer your points in turn.
Nuclear weapons I was using the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example of a nuclear stand-off. I’m not saying a very similar crisis will occur, but that other stand-offs are possible in the future. Other examples of stand-offs include Nixon and the Yom Kippur War, or Reagan and Able Archer. There have many ‘close calls’ and stand-offs over the years, and there could be one in the future e.g. over the Baltics. Trump’s character seems particularly ill-suited to nuclear stand-offs, so increases risk.
Pandemics Many countries have had biological weapons programs: for example the US, UK, USSR, Japan, Germany, Iraq and South Africa. I agree that they’re difficult to control and would likely hurt the country that used them as well as the target—but that hasn’t stopped those countries. The development and use of biological weapons has been constrained by the Convention and surrounding norms. I think Trump threatens those norms, and so increases risk.
Liberal global order Very interesting fact about trade and war there, although she is looking at the period 1870-1938 and I’m talking about post-1945. And yes I agree with you about democratic peace theory. My point is more general, that the liberal global order has kept us safe—to take one example we haven’t had a serious great power war. Trump threatens that order, and so increases risk.
Yes but those other examples didn’t pivot around the president as the key negotiator. Able Archer happened behind the scenes with Reagan kept out of the script. Yes, Reagan’s ‘evil empire’ rhetoric in the 80s contributed to Soviet fears leading into it, but Trump’s done the exact opposite with Russia and nothing comparable with any other country. Nixon didn’t play a large role in 1973, it was mostly an Israeli thing. The Norwegian missile alert and Petrov alarms were also brief windows without any instance of diplomacy. In those cases all that matters is the adversary’s prior expectation of a first strike, and Trump will probably be perceived by foreign analysts as equally or less likely to mount a first strike during ordinary diplomatic conditions than other leaders, since he’s populist and isolationist.
Don’t confuse bioweapons with pandemics and biological catastrophic risks in general. The bioweapons which are useful and have been investigated by states are precisely those which don’t pose pandemic risks, e.g. Anthrax.