I agree that the media coverage implies SBF endorsed the content of this memo more than is warranted based on this text alone. But I would guess there was serious discussion of this kind of thing (maybe not buying Nauru specifically, but buying other pieces of land for the purpose of building bunkers/shelters).
In this EAG Fireside Chat from October 2021, Will MacAskill says: “I’m also really keen on more disaster preparedness work, so like, buying coal mines I’m totally serious on… but also just other things for if there’s a collapse of civilization… at the most extreme you might have, like, a hermetically sealed bunker that no pathogens can enter into” (42:26). So I don’t think “Buy Nauru” falls into the category of “all sorts of wild possibilities got discussed around that time” versus a plausible extension of an idea that had become somewhat mainstream within EA at that point.
Buying a coal mine ( a common occurrence that normal people do, though it turns out Will misunderstood the process in a way that probably invalidated the plan ) seems sufficiently different from buying a country ( a very rare occurrence with no established process, normal people do not do ) that I don’t think you should take Will’s serious interest in the former as much evidence about the latter.
Yeah, I did not mean to suggest anything about Will’s support for buying small island nations. The point is just that when buying land (albeit coal mines, not Nauru) and building bunkers are mentioned in the same breath in a very public discussion at a very public EA event:
I think this makes it harder for the EA community to put as much ideological space between itself and “buy Nauru” as we might like to. Clearly “buy island nation” and “buy coal mines/build bunkers” are different, but I don’t know that they’re sufficiently different that I would say “wow, Gabe really went out on a limb in coming up with this; I doubt this idea was inspired by others he was exposed to through conversations with people in the EA community.”
This makes me think that more extreme versions of these ideas were being floated behind closed doors (/on Signal). If I’m right about this, then I suspect we’ll see more evidence of this during the trial, and I will happily eat my words in a few months if we don’t.
Maybe a more precise way of putting this:
If “buy coal mines/build bunkers” = A, and “buy Nauru” = E, then my view is that: 1) A and E aren’t that far apart (just separated by B, C, and D) and 2) I suspect B, C, and D were being discussed.
I agree that the media coverage implies SBF endorsed the content of this memo more than is warranted based on this text alone. But I would guess there was serious discussion of this kind of thing (maybe not buying Nauru specifically, but buying other pieces of land for the purpose of building bunkers/shelters).
In this EAG Fireside Chat from October 2021, Will MacAskill says: “I’m also really keen on more disaster preparedness work, so like, buying coal mines I’m totally serious on… but also just other things for if there’s a collapse of civilization… at the most extreme you might have, like, a hermetically sealed bunker that no pathogens can enter into” (42:26). So I don’t think “Buy Nauru” falls into the category of “all sorts of wild possibilities got discussed around that time” versus a plausible extension of an idea that had become somewhat mainstream within EA at that point.
Buying a coal mine ( a common occurrence that normal people do, though it turns out Will misunderstood the process in a way that probably invalidated the plan ) seems sufficiently different from buying a country ( a very rare occurrence with no established process, normal people do not do ) that I don’t think you should take Will’s serious interest in the former as much evidence about the latter.
Yeah, I did not mean to suggest anything about Will’s support for buying small island nations. The point is just that when buying land (albeit coal mines, not Nauru) and building bunkers are mentioned in the same breath in a very public discussion at a very public EA event:
I think this makes it harder for the EA community to put as much ideological space between itself and “buy Nauru” as we might like to. Clearly “buy island nation” and “buy coal mines/build bunkers” are different, but I don’t know that they’re sufficiently different that I would say “wow, Gabe really went out on a limb in coming up with this; I doubt this idea was inspired by others he was exposed to through conversations with people in the EA community.”
This makes me think that more extreme versions of these ideas were being floated behind closed doors (/on Signal). If I’m right about this, then I suspect we’ll see more evidence of this during the trial, and I will happily eat my words in a few months if we don’t.
Maybe a more precise way of putting this:
If “buy coal mines/build bunkers” = A, and “buy Nauru” = E, then my view is that: 1) A and E aren’t that far apart (just separated by B, C, and D) and 2) I suspect B, C, and D were being discussed.