Hm interesting. One reaction I have is that in-person communities have different functions, and it might be worth specifying more precisely what function you envision in-person EA communities having in 2026 (and how this has maybe changed?). Here are some different models I could see; 2 and 3 seem more promising to me than 1 or 4:
EA as a professional community (like a professional society with professional conferences). This is historically what most in-person EA events have been, but as I’ve argued, I think this kind of in-person community makes less and less sense (though it probably continues to make sense for large sub-groups of EAs, like AI safety EAs, GPR EAs, and so on).
EA as a moral/spiritual community (like Unitarian Universalism). I suspect some people will bristle at the word “spiritual,” but I think what you’ve said about motivation is true/important, and EA would do well to lean into this. As a kid, I always liked religious services—despite not believing in God—because I enjoyed the music, (some of) the sermons/stories, and the quiet meditation. It would be culty to lean too hard in the direction of an “EA service,” but it could be cool to design social events that explicitly try to get at this (i.e., leave people feeling hopeful/reflective/recharged, rather than doom-y). I suspect a lot of EAs—including myself, lol—would eye roll at the concept though, so it could be hard to get off the ground.
EA as a social community organized around a shared interest (like a debate team). Debaters don’t formally debate with each other when they socialize (ie, in a structured way), but the things that make them like debate also make them socially compatible. Similarly, maybe we could think of EAs as actually practicing their EA separately, but uniting over the things that make them like EA. I suspect this is a fairly promising model.
EA as a social community organized around a shared activity (like a hiking club). A hiking club exists so people can hike together and, as my dad often notes after spending the day with his, may not be that socially compatible in other ways. I could see EA being like this too—maybe I don’t vibe with the AI safety people, but we could have interesting/fun convos about EA? I’m also not sure this works though.
Yes, I overstated this a bit (“has dried up”), but I kind of think we’re both right. On a large scale, orgs like GiveWell are still getting a lot of funding. But on an individual level, the funding environment feels really different to me than it did five years ago, when there were more fellowship and grant and award opportunities than I could possibly apply to. It does not feel like that today.