Id suggest investing in companies correlated with AI progress not shorting bonds. Some of the best investments are private but you can still buy stocks like MSFT, TSM, Samsung and ASML. This seems like a much better way to bet on AI progress.
Also if you expect aligned AI you should probably consume much less? Inequality might get locked in and returns to capital might skyrocket. Bad time to be a big spender. If we get unaligned AI and the world ends or aligned AI paradise so be it.
I read the appendix and it doesn’t seem very convincing. For example they bring up openAI but you can buy MSFT stock. MSFT already owns a chunk of openAI and is in talks to own a much larger share.
I do not think the appendix 1 is likely to convince people shorting interest rates is the best way to express an AI thesis.
I did say some of the best investments are private. But there are good public investments (MSFT, TSM, SMSN, ASML). Nothing in investing is guaranteed but trying to invest in AI companies seems like a much better bet than shorting interest rates. Also many rationalists are rich enough they can try to invest in various private companies.
It might be more convincing to directly attack their point that the price of MST, TSM, SMSN, ASML, etc. is a function of not only future profits but future interest rates.
Their claim is that the effect on equity prices is messy because of interest rates, not that future expected profits are necessarily lower than you believe.
Id suggest investing in companies correlated with AI progress not shorting bonds. Some of the best investments are private but you can still buy stocks like MSFT, TSM, Samsung and ASML. This seems like a much better way to bet on AI progress.
Also if you expect aligned AI you should probably consume much less? Inequality might get locked in and returns to capital might skyrocket. Bad time to be a big spender. If we get unaligned AI and the world ends or aligned AI paradise so be it.
The authors address your first comment in this appendix.
I read the appendix and it doesn’t seem very convincing. For example they bring up openAI but you can buy MSFT stock. MSFT already owns a chunk of openAI and is in talks to own a much larger share.
I do not think the appendix 1 is likely to convince people shorting interest rates is the best way to express an AI thesis.
If you don’t like the OpenAI example, consider the possibility that other non-public companies could develop AGI...!
I did say some of the best investments are private. But there are good public investments (MSFT, TSM, SMSN, ASML). Nothing in investing is guaranteed but trying to invest in AI companies seems like a much better bet than shorting interest rates. Also many rationalists are rich enough they can try to invest in various private companies.
It might be more convincing to directly attack their point that the price of MST, TSM, SMSN, ASML, etc. is a function of not only future profits but future interest rates.
Their claim is that the effect on equity prices is messy because of interest rates, not that future expected profits are necessarily lower than you believe.
Aren’t there good reasons not to invest in AI capabilities, like reducing P(doom)?