I mostly expect overreaction in cases of a weaker signal such as a Russian “test” on territory Russia claims as Russian, or tactical use
I disagree. I will probably evacuate San Francisco for a few weeks if Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. That said, I agree that there are many other events that may cause EAs to overreact, and it might be worth clearly delineating what counts as a red line, and what doesn’t, ahead of time.
I disagree. I will probably evacuate San Francisco for a few weeks if Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. That said, I agree that there are many other events that may cause EAs to overreact, and it might be worth clearly delineating what counts as a red line, and what doesn’t, ahead of time.