To be clear, I will also leave SF in the event of a strong signal that we’re on the brink of nuclear war—such as US officials saying they believe Russia is preparing for a first launch, or the US using a nuclear weapon ourselves in response to Russian use, or strategic rather than tactical Russian use (for example against Kyiv), or Russia declaring war on NATO or declaring intent to use nuclear weapons outside Russian territory.
I mostly expect overreaction in cases of a weaker signal such as a Russian “test” on territory Russia claims as Russian, or tactical use, or Russia inducing a meltdown at a nuclear power plant—all of which would be scary, destabilizing, precedent-setting events that dramatically raise the odds of a nuclear war, but which I wouldn’t call a “clear and unambiguous signal that a large amount of the world may be utterly destroyed in a matter of hours”.
I think it’s worth noting that that I’d expect you would gain a significant relative advantage if you get out of cities before other people, such that acting later would be a lot less effective at furthering your survival & rebuilding goals.
I expect the bulk of the risk of an all out nuclear war to happen in the couple of weeks after the first nuclear use. If I’m right, then the way to avoid the failure mode you’re identifying is returning in a few weeks if no new nuclear weapons have been used, or similar.
Hmm, what mechanism are you imagining for advantage from getting out of cities before other people? You could have already booked an airbnb/rented a house/etc before the rush, but that’s an argument for booking the airbnb/renting the house, not for living in it.
I assume the mechanism for beating the crowd is “have an earlier trigger, like ‘Russia does a test nuke’” rather than the stronger signals you described.
I am somewhat surprised that a tactical nuke use by Russia isn’t sufficient. A naive fermi I did on Samotsvety’s numbers suggest at that point an hour in SF at that point costs you about 2 hours in-expectation, so something about our fermis must be very different, since that seems very likely worth leaving for.
I strongly do not expect full nuclear exchange in immediate response to Russia tac nuke use; the situation that seems plausible to me would involve conventional retaliation against Russian forces in Ukraine, Syria, etc., followed by Russia responding to that. So I think leaving at a further point still means leaving well ahead of a full exchange.
I think my work is much more valuable in worlds without a full nuclear exchange; iirc you are pretty doomy on current trajectories, so maybe you actually think your work is more valuable in worlds with a full nuclear exchange, or at least of comparable value?
I think I’m twice as productive at home, for reasons relating to childcare, disruption associated with fleeing, personal traits, my home being well set up to meet my needs, diet, etc.
I think my work is much more valuable in worlds without a full nuclear exchange; iirc you are pretty doomy on current trajectories, so maybe you actually think your work is more valuable in worlds with a full nuclear exchange, or at least of comparable value?
Oh, hmm, this might be a big difference. I think my work might be 10x more valuable in worlds with nuclear exchange (since I think the world becomes a lot more malleable as a result of such a crisis, seems like there is a big opportunity to change humanity’s relation to existential risk, I have a broad generalist skillset, and if there are fewer people around but I survive, seems like I should have a higher prior that I can influence humanity’s future).
I am currently just using a 1x multiplier in my estimates, but I think a 3-5x would more accurately capture my beliefs.
I strongly do not expect full nuclear exchange in immediate response to Russia tac nuke use; the situation that seems plausible to me would involve conventional retaliation against Russian forces in Ukraine, Syria, etc., followed by Russia responding to that. So I think leaving at a further point still means leaving well ahead of a full exchange.
To be clear, I also strongly expect a more gradual escalation, but I do think the MAD doctrine and in-general the “first-strike wins” (in the absence of immediate retaliation) nature of nuclear conflict makes it pretty hard for me to be confident in this. Like, I think governments have tried pretty hard to maintain a strict taboo against any offensive use of nuclear weapons, and have backed that taboo with nuclear escalation, and while I do think that more likely than not still means things will escalate gradually, I still feel like I can’t go below 1-5% that a much more quick and drastic escalation occurs.
I mostly expect overreaction in cases of a weaker signal such as a Russian “test” on territory Russia claims as Russian, or tactical use
I disagree. I will probably evacuate San Francisco for a few weeks if Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. That said, I agree that there are many other events that may cause EAs to overreact, and it might be worth clearly delineating what counts as a red line, and what doesn’t, ahead of time.
To be clear, I will also leave SF in the event of a strong signal that we’re on the brink of nuclear war—such as US officials saying they believe Russia is preparing for a first launch, or the US using a nuclear weapon ourselves in response to Russian use, or strategic rather than tactical Russian use (for example against Kyiv), or Russia declaring war on NATO or declaring intent to use nuclear weapons outside Russian territory.
I mostly expect overreaction in cases of a weaker signal such as a Russian “test” on territory Russia claims as Russian, or tactical use, or Russia inducing a meltdown at a nuclear power plant—all of which would be scary, destabilizing, precedent-setting events that dramatically raise the odds of a nuclear war, but which I wouldn’t call a “clear and unambiguous signal that a large amount of the world may be utterly destroyed in a matter of hours”.
I think it’s worth noting that that I’d expect you would gain a significant relative advantage if you get out of cities before other people, such that acting later would be a lot less effective at furthering your survival & rebuilding goals.
I expect the bulk of the risk of an all out nuclear war to happen in the couple of weeks after the first nuclear use. If I’m right, then the way to avoid the failure mode you’re identifying is returning in a few weeks if no new nuclear weapons have been used, or similar.
Hmm, what mechanism are you imagining for advantage from getting out of cities before other people? You could have already booked an airbnb/rented a house/etc before the rush, but that’s an argument for booking the airbnb/renting the house, not for living in it.
Beating the traffic perhaps; getting stuck in your car trying to leave SF is worse than sheltering in your SF basement.
I assume the mechanism for beating the crowd is “have an earlier trigger, like ‘Russia does a test nuke’” rather than the stronger signals you described.
I am somewhat surprised that a tactical nuke use by Russia isn’t sufficient. A naive fermi I did on Samotsvety’s numbers suggest at that point an hour in SF at that point costs you about 2 hours in-expectation, so something about our fermis must be very different, since that seems very likely worth leaving for.
Plausible cruxes:
I strongly do not expect full nuclear exchange in immediate response to Russia tac nuke use; the situation that seems plausible to me would involve conventional retaliation against Russian forces in Ukraine, Syria, etc., followed by Russia responding to that. So I think leaving at a further point still means leaving well ahead of a full exchange.
I think my work is much more valuable in worlds without a full nuclear exchange; iirc you are pretty doomy on current trajectories, so maybe you actually think your work is more valuable in worlds with a full nuclear exchange, or at least of comparable value?
I think I’m twice as productive at home, for reasons relating to childcare, disruption associated with fleeing, personal traits, my home being well set up to meet my needs, diet, etc.
Oh, hmm, this might be a big difference. I think my work might be 10x more valuable in worlds with nuclear exchange (since I think the world becomes a lot more malleable as a result of such a crisis, seems like there is a big opportunity to change humanity’s relation to existential risk, I have a broad generalist skillset, and if there are fewer people around but I survive, seems like I should have a higher prior that I can influence humanity’s future).
I am currently just using a 1x multiplier in my estimates, but I think a 3-5x would more accurately capture my beliefs.
To be clear, I also strongly expect a more gradual escalation, but I do think the MAD doctrine and in-general the “first-strike wins” (in the absence of immediate retaliation) nature of nuclear conflict makes it pretty hard for me to be confident in this. Like, I think governments have tried pretty hard to maintain a strict taboo against any offensive use of nuclear weapons, and have backed that taboo with nuclear escalation, and while I do think that more likely than not still means things will escalate gradually, I still feel like I can’t go below 1-5% that a much more quick and drastic escalation occurs.
I disagree. I will probably evacuate San Francisco for a few weeks if Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. That said, I agree that there are many other events that may cause EAs to overreact, and it might be worth clearly delineating what counts as a red line, and what doesn’t, ahead of time.