I think it’s worth noting that that I’d expect you would gain a significant relative advantage if you get out of cities before other people, such that acting later would be a lot less effective at furthering your survival & rebuilding goals.
I expect the bulk of the risk of an all out nuclear war to happen in the couple of weeks after the first nuclear use. If I’m right, then the way to avoid the failure mode you’re identifying is returning in a few weeks if no new nuclear weapons have been used, or similar.
Hmm, what mechanism are you imagining for advantage from getting out of cities before other people? You could have already booked an airbnb/rented a house/etc before the rush, but that’s an argument for booking the airbnb/renting the house, not for living in it.
I assume the mechanism for beating the crowd is “have an earlier trigger, like ‘Russia does a test nuke’” rather than the stronger signals you described.
I think it’s worth noting that that I’d expect you would gain a significant relative advantage if you get out of cities before other people, such that acting later would be a lot less effective at furthering your survival & rebuilding goals.
I expect the bulk of the risk of an all out nuclear war to happen in the couple of weeks after the first nuclear use. If I’m right, then the way to avoid the failure mode you’re identifying is returning in a few weeks if no new nuclear weapons have been used, or similar.
Hmm, what mechanism are you imagining for advantage from getting out of cities before other people? You could have already booked an airbnb/rented a house/etc before the rush, but that’s an argument for booking the airbnb/renting the house, not for living in it.
Beating the traffic perhaps; getting stuck in your car trying to leave SF is worse than sheltering in your SF basement.
I assume the mechanism for beating the crowd is “have an earlier trigger, like ‘Russia does a test nuke’” rather than the stronger signals you described.