(b) Causes: The regular donor gets to pick any Favorite Charity, from any cause, and their donation will cause money from the Bonus Fund to go to it. Unless by some miracle, the Bonus Fund supporters would otherwise have collectively donated to the same causes as the regular donors in the same proportions, then regular donations do have direct counterfactual impact on how much money goes to different causes ✅ direct counterfactual impact on donations to different causes ✅
The money moved to their Favorite Charity isn’t positive counterfactually if their Favorite Charity gets less than the donor would have otherwise donated to their Favorite Charity on their own without FarmKind. I expect, more often than not, it will mean less to their Favorite Charity, so the counterfactual is actually negative for their Favorite Charity.
My guess for the (more direct) counterfactual effects of FarmKind on where money goes is:
Shift some money from Favorite Charities to EAA charities.
Separately increase funding for EAA charities by incentivizing further (EAA) donation overall. (Shift more money from donors to EAA charities.)
It is possible FarmKind will incentivize enough further overall donation from donors to get even more to their Favorite Charities than otherwise, but that’s not my best guess.
FWIW, I agree with point (c) Charities, and I think that’s a way this is counterfactual that’s positive from the perspective of donors: they get to decide to which EAA charities the bonus funding goes.
But something like DoubleUpDrive would be the clearest and simplest way to do this without potentially confusing or (unintentionally) misleading people about whether their Favourite Charity will get more than it would have otherwise. You’d cut everything about their Favorite Charities and donating to them, and just let them pick among a set of EAA charities to donate to and match those donations to whichever they choose.
I agree that anyone seeing how the system works could see that if they give $150 directly to their Favorite Charity, more will go to their Favorite Charity than if they gave that $150 through FarmKind and split it. But they might not realize it, because FarmKind also giving to their Favorite Charity confuses them.
An intuition pump might be: how would you feel if a FarmKind-style fundraiser (“OperaKind”) somehow got the donor list for your own favorite charity and sent out emails urging those donors to participate in OperaKind? Would you be excited, or more concerned that money might be shifted from your preferred charities to opera charities?
Or one could skip the hypothetical and just ask some of the big non-EA charities—if they think FarmKind would be counterfactually positive for them, they should be willing to turn over their donor lists for free which would be a major coup.
Disclaimer: I am mostly skimming as there’s a lot to read and haven’t gotten through it all. But I do believe part of the idea with FarmKind is that the donors are already sympathetic to animal charities, and agree with the premise of effective animal charities, but also just want to get some warm fuzzies in as well. As opposed to most of their money going to something they do not agree with or have any care for.
Or, you could add in large print that they would get more to their Favorite Charity if they just donated the same amount to it directly, not through FarmKind. That should totally dispel any misconception otherwise, if they actually read, understand and believe it.
The money moved to their Favorite Charity isn’t positive counterfactually if their Favorite Charity gets less than the donor would have otherwise donated to their Favorite Charity on their own without FarmKind. I expect, more often than not, it will mean less to their Favorite Charity, so the counterfactual is actually negative for their Favorite Charity.
My guess for the (more direct) counterfactual effects of FarmKind on where money goes is:
Shift some money from Favorite Charities to EAA charities.
Separately increase funding for EAA charities by incentivizing further (EAA) donation overall. (Shift more money from donors to EAA charities.)
It is possible FarmKind will incentivize enough further overall donation from donors to get even more to their Favorite Charities than otherwise, but that’s not my best guess.
FWIW, I agree with point (c) Charities, and I think that’s a way this is counterfactual that’s positive from the perspective of donors: they get to decide to which EAA charities the bonus funding goes.
But something like DoubleUpDrive would be the clearest and simplest way to do this without potentially confusing or (unintentionally) misleading people about whether their Favourite Charity will get more than it would have otherwise. You’d cut everything about their Favorite Charities and donating to them, and just let them pick among a set of EAA charities to donate to and match those donations to whichever they choose.
I agree that anyone seeing how the system works could see that if they give $150 directly to their Favorite Charity, more will go to their Favorite Charity than if they gave that $150 through FarmKind and split it. But they might not realize it, because FarmKind also giving to their Favorite Charity confuses them.
An intuition pump might be: how would you feel if a FarmKind-style fundraiser (“OperaKind”) somehow got the donor list for your own favorite charity and sent out emails urging those donors to participate in OperaKind? Would you be excited, or more concerned that money might be shifted from your preferred charities to opera charities?
Or one could skip the hypothetical and just ask some of the big non-EA charities—if they think FarmKind would be counterfactually positive for them, they should be willing to turn over their donor lists for free which would be a major coup.
Disclaimer: I am mostly skimming as there’s a lot to read and haven’t gotten through it all. But I do believe part of the idea with FarmKind is that the donors are already sympathetic to animal charities, and agree with the premise of effective animal charities, but also just want to get some warm fuzzies in as well. As opposed to most of their money going to something they do not agree with or have any care for.
Or, you could add in large print that they would get more to their Favorite Charity if they just donated the same amount to it directly, not through FarmKind. That should totally dispel any misconception otherwise, if they actually read, understand and believe it.