“Political Polarization and Gridlock is the biggest threat to steering humanity towards a good future.”
Ari S.
Karma: 58
Here are some cruxes that I don’t see addressed as much:
If there is a future with sentient beings living in it, are their lives, on average, likely to be net positive or net negative?
This weighs over all existential risk cause areas. If preventing existential risk is possible, but the future is net-negative, then this intervention may be harmful, due to increasing s-risks.
How much will the governance of developed countries influence the governance of underdeveloped countries?
A country that does not value net welfare at all but instead dominance and power can transfer its values to the rest of the world through popular media and economic dependency. If this happens, it could lead to a future where coordination on issues becomes difficult, if not impossible.
I don’t know how to use a parameter on a file, or how to execute it. How do I do that?
It says that it is downloadable on Linux, but I just started using it. Are there clearer instructions on what buttons to press/what words to put into the terminal?
What would “stalling the film” look like? And how would you avoid drawing more attention to the film by doing so?
I’m sorry if I came off too harsh with my comment, if you were referring to me. How could I have phrased my points better?
Just to clarify, by “Sam” do you mean Altman or Bankman-Fried?
Threatening and banning critical pieces isn’t what good people do; it’s what groups like the Church of Scientology do. The goal isn’t to censor criticism, but to create a positive counter-narrative. Or more realistically, a populist narrative with “Big Tech” as the antagonist.
a. Probably Canada or Australia/NZ.
b. Lack of ability to do good in authoritarian/anti-science (in particular related to vaccinations and medicine) regimes is the first factor. The second factor is questioning/fluctuating gender identity, which may cause me to be targeted.
Additional Notes: I think I started making serious efforts around June 2024, but I thought the authoritarianism would be seriously limited, so for the sake of my mental health, I decided not to transfer colleges. So far, it seems like most tell-tale signs of authoritarianism (threats to invade countries, kidnappings off the streets) have come to pass. So I am now trying to move again, hopefully by this winter or spring.
I’d like to make a post about gruntworkers, people who do low-expertise but essential and non-replacable work. For example, an unpaid volunteer position, that requires general skills like planning, fundraising, outreach, etc.
How political groups aren’t “causes”, but networks of trust with different causes inside them.
False dichotomies and tradeoffs and their relevance to cause area reasoning.
Why many altruistic causes with different theories spiral into pessimism.
Both could be somewhat correct.
The true reading could be: “Utilitarianism is flawed because false dichotomies are often used to justify unnecessary suffering.”
Not that I completely agree with that reading.
I’m confused. Shouldn’t the citation say 2025 instead of 2026?
Is this only for people in the UK, or should people from other countries fill it out too?
Edit: I saw the deadline passed already. Still, this question may be relevant to other posts.
This is an interesting idea. One unstated assumption I don’t agree with is the assumption that Boltzmann brains would experience more negative experiences than positive ones. In order to justify destroying the possibility of something existing, one would need to prove it would experience negative experiences that outweigh the positive experiences. Human brains experience pain more intensely than pleasure because they are adapted for an environment which harshly punishes mistakes. Boltzmann brains would form randomly, so their pleasure to pain balance would be random, thus making it about an even ratio. In that case, we have no idea what the net effect would be.
There are other interventions that would be worth considering, like electoral reform. For example, there were ranked-choice voting ballot initiatives in several states, and that kind of reform has comparatively few direct workers. While those interventions are funded, they are not as heavily funded as direct electoral campaigning. Other alternatives like STAR voting or quadratic voting that could have a bigger payoff could be more neglected.
I would like to attend, but I have too much schoolwork and would have trouble catching up. A summer conference would be more accessible for me as a college student.
“I’m not good at being happy” was something I relate to and have thought before.
Where do I apply for the East Coast Convention specifically?
For American EAs who are LGBT/queer: I think we should begin having discussions about how the Trump administration will affect us (non-queer people would also be allowed to participate), and whether we want to leave or stay, as well as where we want to go to. I think there are factors to take into account (like impact, community, and career potential) that would be better for an EA-focused group to look at. It would also be nice to have a group that is shielded from the fearmongering of the general public.
I might make a larger post or start a Groupchat for this, so if you are or know anyone who would be interested, you can comment or message me about it and we can get in touch.(I need to get my life priorities in order, so I will not be doing this now.) Personally, I will not yet be leaving the United States, but I want to be ready to leave if things get dangerous enough. I wouldn’t normally post something this politically divisive, but the possible urgency and threat posed to people needs to be assessed seriously.
Some possible containment procedures are as follows:
Altering the Gregorian Calendar to change Leap Day to April 1st (unknown effectiveness, could lead in transferal of the anomaly to another day)
The teaching of mind-resistance techniques in schools and workplaces, using standard cover stories (media literacy, appreciation of the arts, combating racial bias). However, this runs the risk of collapsing important delusions to the functioning of society.
Global usage of hypnotic drugs through the atmosphere, as well as using sleeper agents in the government to fast-track recognition of April 1st as a federal holiday [Denied by the Foundation Ethics committee]
Usage of these techniques could do a large part to reduce global IK-Class End of Civilization Scenarios. If you’re interested in helping with anomalous existential risk, please contact the SCP Foundation outreach team. This has been brought to you as part of the SCP Foundation’s partnership with the Center for Effective Altruism and organizations like 80,000 Hours.