There’s never been a better time to begin forecasting in Metaculus’s Q2 2024 Cup because there’s never been another time to begin forecasting in Metaculus’s Q2 2024 Cup. Four questions (linked below) kick off the series, with Community Predictions hidden as of this posting.
If you haven’t forecast in a previous Quarterly Cup, start forecasting.
As it says in the promotional image above, the Quarterly Cup is the perfect place for fast feedback so you can improve your abilities and subsequently show them off: There are new questions every week. They resolve quickly. If you aren’t currently calibrated, you will become calibrated.
Winners receive medals, bragging rights, and handsome branded merch.
And Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry unable to return home from a trip abroad, followed by his resignation and replacement with a transitional government
Metaculus: Q2 Cup Kickoff + Q1 Winners
Link post
There’s never been a better time to begin forecasting in Metaculus’s Q2 2024 Cup because there’s never been another time to begin forecasting in Metaculus’s Q2 2024 Cup. Four questions (linked below) kick off the series, with Community Predictions hidden as of this posting.
If you haven’t forecast in a previous Quarterly Cup, start forecasting.
If you’ve never made a prediction before, start forecasting.
If your Metaculus medal case is already well-stocked, continue forecasting.
As it says in the promotional image above, the Quarterly Cup is the perfect place for fast feedback so you can improve your abilities and subsequently show them off: There are new questions every week. They resolve quickly. If you aren’t currently calibrated, you will become calibrated.
Winners receive medals, bragging rights, and handsome branded merch.
The first batch
Q1 2024 Winners
The top three finishers out of 715 are:
lbiii
draaglom
forecastooor
This quarter saw a number of significant events including (with forecast questions linked):
Two successful moon landings, including the first lander operated by a private company,
Donald Trump securing the Republican nomination,
US strikes against the Iranian military,
Confrontations between China and the Philippines,
And Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry unable to return home from a trip abroad, followed by his resignation and replacement with a transitional government
The top 15 places on the leaderboard