Metaculus here. I’ll put in a plug for our US Democracy Index, developed with watchdog group Bright Line Watch (Dartmouth & U of Chicago). The index aggregates 39 indicators across electoral integrity, rule of law, civil liberties, institutional checks, etc.
christian
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@Austin & @Saul Munn — all approved, and we’ve recalculated the new $2250 prize pool. Thank you both for your generosity!
Nice! Thanks Saul. Prize Pool is now removed from the header (though the commenting prize continues). The reason why I don’t put the commenting prize in the Prize Pool field, if you’re curious, is because it would then automatically generate “takes” for participants per forecasting performance, when the prize is for comments.
Hey Austin, that’s so generous and really appreciated. Let me get with our Programs team, and I’ll be back to you.
Hi @Larks, good comments.
First, RE Bright Line Watch:
I take your point and am going to revisit the label. That said, I’ll offer some relevant indicators on BLW’s track record:
During Trump’s first term, BLW & their expert respondents did not rate the state of democracy as poorly as the general public did, and their ratings remained quite stable over the term.
BLW’s research is cited by outlets across the political spectrum, including Fox, Reason, and the Daily Mail.
BLW’s reports have harshly criticized the Biden administration and figures on the left as well.
And then, this series is designed to scrutinize BLW’s expert forecasters by comparing them against the ultimate outcomes as well as the Metaculus community.
RE the bar chart:
This is how resolutions render in ‘consumer view.’ Resolved ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ bars are actually the same height.