All right, the feature is back up!
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Metaculus Launches Chinese AI Chips Tournament, Supporting Institute for AI Policy and Strategy Research
Metaculus Introduces New Forecast Scores, New Leaderboard & Medals
Metaculus Introduces AI-Powered Community Insights to Reveal Factors Driving User Forecasts
Metaculus’s New Sidebar Helps You Find Forecasts Faster
Metaculus Presents: Does Generative AI Infringe Copyright?
[Event] Metaculus Presents: Transformative Science at Startup Speed
Metaculus Presents: Transformative Science at Startup Speed
This feature is temporarily hidden while we address a bug with the sliders. I’ll update once it’s live again.
Enhanced Usability for Metaculus’s Binary Question Groups
We’ve upgraded Metaculus’s binary question groups to make forecasting faster and more efficient. Each question is equipped with its own slider, which means fewer steps to make your forecasts.
Try the new interface on one of these question groups:
Will China Invade Taiwan?
Who Will Be Elected To Be US President in 2024?
Will Israeli Forces Reach Gaza City Hall?
Will These Countries See Civil War by 2036?
Metaculus Launches Conditional Cup to Explore Linked Forecasts
Metaculus Launches Space Technology & Climate Forecasting Initiative
Metaculus Launches Q4 Quarterly Cup!
Metaculus Announces Forecasting Tournament to Evaluate Focused Research Organizations, in Partnership With the Federation of American Scientists
Metaculus Launches 2023/2024 FluSight Challenge Supporting CDC, $5K in Prizes
Metaculus Announces Winners of the Alt-Protein Forecasting Tournament
Now you can explore more relationships between more forecast questions on Metaculus, with conditional pairs that feature question group subquestions. To submit your own:
Click ‘Write a Question’ on Metaculus
Select ‘conditional pair’ as the Question Type
Click ‘Select Parent’ and/or ‘Select Child’
Search for the subquestion name, which will be indicated in parentheses after the group name, or paste in the URL of the subquestion
Note: You can copy the URL of a subquestion by visiting the question group page, clicking the ‘...’ more options menu, and selecting the ‘Copy Link’ option next to the subquestion you’re focused on.
In addition to submitting a new conditional yourself, you can also request questions here in the new question discussion post.
Get Started
Here are some new subquestion conditional pairs to start forecasting on:
Embed and Share All Metaculus Question Types
Now you can share and embed all question types, including question groups without fan graphs and all conditionals. Simply paste a question URL on your social platform of choice to generate a preview image:
You can also paste URLs to embed plots here on the Effective Altruism Forum and on Substack:
Want to embed forecasts on other sites? You can access the embed code for a given question by navigating to the question page, making sure the browser window is wide enough to include the sidebar, and clicking the Embed button.