Thanks for sharing that. About to dm you.
christian
Karma: 709
Metaculus: Q2 Cup Kickoff + Q1 Winners
Forecast in the Understanding AI Series With Timothy B. Lee
AI Benchmarks Series — Metaculus Questions on Evaluations of AI Models Against Technical Benchmarks
Metaculus Launches Question Series With Bryan Caplan
Metaculus Concludes Nuclear Risk Tournament Supporting Rethink Priorities
Metaculus has concluded the Nuclear Risk Tournament, supporting Rethink Priorities’ efforts by helping to inform funding, policy, research, and career decisions aimed at reducing existential risk.
Thank you to Rethink Priorities for sponsoring the tournament, thank you to the forecasters who contributed their talents, and congratulations to the tournament winners.
Metaculus Launches Future of AI Series, Based on Research Questions by Arb Research
Metaculus Introduces Better Question Discovery
Now You Can Create Multiple Choice Questions on Metaculus
Create multiple choice questions and bring greater clarity to topics with multiple potential outcomes where one and only one will occur.
To get started, simply Create a Question and set the Question Type to ‘multiple choice’.
Give the Group Variable a clear label, e.g., ‘Option’, ‘Team’, ‘Country’.
Fill in the Multiple Choice Options, adding more fields as needed.
After you share additional details including background information on your topic, we’ll be excited to review and publish your multiple choice question!
- Metaculus launches round 2 of the Chinese AI Chips Tournament
Help bring clarity to key questions in AI governance and support research by the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy (IAPS).
Start forecasting on new questions tackling broader themes of Chinese AI capability like:
Will we see a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?
Will a Chinese firm order a large number of domestic AI chips?
Will a Chinese firm order a large number of US or US-allied AI chips?
Metaculus Launches Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup for Current Events-Focused, Fast-Resolving Questions
Metaculus Hosts ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Metaculus Introduces Multiple Choice Questions
Metaculus Launches Chinese AI Chips Tournament, Supporting Institute for AI Policy and Strategy Research
Metaculus Introduces New Forecast Scores, New Leaderboard & Medals
Metaculus Introduces AI-Powered Community Insights to Reveal Factors Driving User Forecasts
Metaculus’s New Sidebar Helps You Find Forecasts Faster
Embed and Share All Metaculus Question Types
Now you can share and embed all question types, including question groups without fan graphs and all conditionals. Simply paste a question URL on your social platform of choice to generate a preview image:
You can also paste URLs to embed plots here on the Effective Altruism Forum and on Substack:
Want to embed forecasts on other sites? You can access the embed code for a given question by navigating to the question page, making sure the browser window is wide enough to include the sidebar, and clicking the Embed button.
Great to see this! Absolutely, we’re looking forward to sharing more Metaculus collaborations with more interesting public thinkers in the near future.