If you’re right, I think that would point to xrisk space funders trusting individuals way too much and institutions way too little. Thomas is a great guy but one guy losing belief in his work (which happens all the time mostly for private reasons, and mostly independent of the actual meaning of the work) should never be a reason to defund an otherwise functioning org, doing seemingly crucial work.
If the alternative theory is correct and the hit pieces are to blame, that still seems like an incorrect decision. When you’re lobbying for something important you can expect some pushback, that shouldn’t be a reason to pull out immediately.
Very well said! I think your first paragraph sums up the most important parts of the story of why CAIP was defunded—Thomas lost interest, mostly for private reasons, and the x-risk funders relied far too heavily on this data point. In part this is because the x-risk funders appear to lack any kind of formal grantmaking criteria, as I write about in post 7 of this sequence.
If I were to bet on what’s happened here, I’d bet it’s something to do with Thomas leaving.
Looking at his LinkedIn and his Forum history, he seems very well connected in the field of AI safety.
I suspect it was easy to get funding because people knew and trusted him.
If you’re right, I think that would point to xrisk space funders trusting individuals way too much and institutions way too little. Thomas is a great guy but one guy losing belief in his work (which happens all the time mostly for private reasons, and mostly independent of the actual meaning of the work) should never be a reason to defund an otherwise functioning org, doing seemingly crucial work.
If the alternative theory is correct and the hit pieces are to blame, that still seems like an incorrect decision. When you’re lobbying for something important you can expect some pushback, that shouldn’t be a reason to pull out immediately.
I agree!
Very well said! I think your first paragraph sums up the most important parts of the story of why CAIP was defunded—Thomas lost interest, mostly for private reasons, and the x-risk funders relied far too heavily on this data point. In part this is because the x-risk funders appear to lack any kind of formal grantmaking criteria, as I write about in post 7 of this sequence.