I thought I would like this post based on the title (I also recently decided to hold off for more information before seriously proposing solutions), but I disagree with much of the content.
A few examples:
It is uncertain whether SBF intentionally committed fraud, or just made a mistake, but people seem to be reacting as if thetakeawayfromthis is that fraud is bad.
I think we can safely say with at this point >95% confidence that SBF basically committed fraud even if not technically in the legal sense (edit: but also seems likely to be fraud in the legal sense), and it’s natural to start thinking about the implications of this and in particular be very clear about our attitude toward the situation if fraud indeed occurred as looks very likely. Waiting too long has serious costs.
We could immediately launch a costly investigation to see who had knowledge of fraud that occurred before we actually know if fraud occured or why. In worlds where we’re wrong about whether or why fraud occurred this would be very costly. My suggestion: wait for information to costlessly come out, discuss what happened when not in the midst of the fog and emotions of current events, and then decide whether we should launch this costly investigation.
If we were to wait until we close to fully knew “whether or why fraud occurred” this might take years as the court case plays out. I think we should get on with it reasonably quickly given that we are pretty confident some really bad stuff went down. Delaying the investigation seems generally more costly to me than the costs of conducting it, e.g. people’s memories decay over time and people have more time to get alternative stories straight.
Adjacently, some are arguing EA could have vetted FTX and Sam better, and averted this situation. This reeks of hindsight bias! Probably EA could not have done better than all the investors who originally vetted FTX before giving them a buttload of money!
Maybe EA should investigate funders more, but arguments for this are orthogonal to recent events, unless CEA believes their comparative advantage in the wider market is high-quality vetting of corporations. If so, they could stand to make quite a bit of money selling this service, and should possibly form a spinoff org.
This seems wrong, e.g. EA leadership had more personal context on Sam than investors. See e.g. Oli here with a personal account and my more abstract argument here.
I don’t say this often, but thanks for your comment!
This seems wrong, e.g. EA leadership had more personal context on Sam than investors. See e.g. Oli here with a personal account and my more abstract argument here.
Interesting! You have changed my mind on this. You clearly know more about this than I. I want you to write a better post arguing for the same overall point if you agreed with the title, hopefully with more context than mine.
The fact that we have such different pictures I think may be an effect of what I’m seeing on the forum. So many top level posts not talking about object level data made it difficult for me to know what object level data we had.
I think we can safely say with at this point >95% confidence that SBF basically committed fraud even if not technically in the legal sense (edit: but also seems likely to be fraud in the legal sense), and it’s natural to start thinking about the implications of this and in particular be very clear about our attitude toward the situation if fraud indeed occurred as looks very likely. Waiting too long has serious costs.
My main thought is that I don’t know why he committed fraud. Was it actually to utility maximize, or because he was just seeking status, or got too prideful or what?
If we were to wait until we close to fully knew “whether or why fraud occurred” this might take years as the court case plays out. I think we should get on with it reasonably quickly given that we are pretty confident some really bad stuff went down. Delaying the investigation seems generally more costly to me than the costs of conducting it, e.g. people’s memories decay over time and people have more time to get alternative stories straight.
I’d agree with this if I thought EA right now had a cool head. Maybe I should have said we should wait until EA has a cooler head before launching investigations.
I want you to write a better post arguing for the same overall point if you agreed with the title, hopefully with more context than mine.
Not feeling up to it right now and not sure it needs a whole top-level post. My current take is something like (very roughly/quickly written):
New information is currently coming in very rapidly.
We should at least wait until the information comes in a bit slower before thinking seriously in-depth about proposed mitigations so we have a better picture of what went wrong. But “babbling” about possible mitigations seems mostly fine.
An investigation similar to the one proposed here should be started fairly quickly, with the goal of producing an initial version of a report within ~2 months so we can start thinking pretty seriously about what mitigations/changes are needed, even if a finalized report would take longer.
My main thought is that I don’t know why he committed fraud. Was it actually to utility maximize, or because he was just seeking status, or got too prideful or what?
I think either way most of the articles you point to do more good than harm. Being more silent on the matter would be worse.
I’d agree with this if I thought EA right now had a cool head. Maybe I should have said we should wait until EA has a cooler head before launching investigations.
I’d hope that the investigation would be conducted mostly by an independent, reputable entity even if commissioned by EA organizations. Also, “EA” isn’t a fully homogeneous entity and I’d hope that the people commissioning the investigation might be more cool-headed than the average Forum poster.
Just for some perspective here, the DOJ could be pursuing SBF for wire fraud, which comes with a maximum sentence of twenty years. FTX’s bankruptcy couldn’t be construed as a mistake past the first day or so of last week, and this is still very generous. I find that this forum has consistently underestimated how grievous the actions taken by SBF, Alameda and FTX have been compared to the individuals I know who work in finance or crypto.
Sorry for the confusion, I was adding on to your comment. I agree with you obviously. It was more a statement on the forum over the past five-six days.
As far as I was concerned, by 24-36 hours(D+1-D+1.5) after the liquidity crisis turned fraud, I already raised the hypothesis of outright stealing and fraud to serious attention, and 48-72 hours after the crisis first broke (D+2-D+3) I assumed fraud and stealing was happening there. I also was right to distrust crypto several months before, because it’s very structure lends it to fraud, with no other legal use.
I thought I would like this post based on the title (I also recently decided to hold off for more information before seriously proposing solutions), but I disagree with much of the content.
A few examples:
I think we can safely say with at this point >95% confidence that SBF basically committed fraud even if not technically in the legal sense (edit: but also seems likely to be fraud in the legal sense), and it’s natural to start thinking about the implications of this and in particular be very clear about our attitude toward the situation if fraud indeed occurred as looks very likely. Waiting too long has serious costs.
If we were to wait until we close to fully knew “whether or why fraud occurred” this might take years as the court case plays out. I think we should get on with it reasonably quickly given that we are pretty confident some really bad stuff went down. Delaying the investigation seems generally more costly to me than the costs of conducting it, e.g. people’s memories decay over time and people have more time to get alternative stories straight.
This seems wrong, e.g. EA leadership had more personal context on Sam than investors. See e.g. Oli here with a personal account and my more abstract argument here.
I don’t say this often, but thanks for your comment!
Interesting! You have changed my mind on this. You clearly know more about this than I. I want you to write a better post arguing for the same overall point if you agreed with the title, hopefully with more context than mine.
The fact that we have such different pictures I think may be an effect of what I’m seeing on the forum. So many top level posts not talking about object level data made it difficult for me to know what object level data we had.
My main thought is that I don’t know why he committed fraud. Was it actually to utility maximize, or because he was just seeking status, or got too prideful or what?
I’d agree with this if I thought EA right now had a cool head. Maybe I should have said we should wait until EA has a cooler head before launching investigations.
Appreciate the quick, cooperative response.
Not feeling up to it right now and not sure it needs a whole top-level post. My current take is something like (very roughly/quickly written):
New information is currently coming in very rapidly.
We should at least wait until the information comes in a bit slower before thinking seriously in-depth about proposed mitigations so we have a better picture of what went wrong. But “babbling” about possible mitigations seems mostly fine.
An investigation similar to the one proposed here should be started fairly quickly, with the goal of producing an initial version of a report within ~2 months so we can start thinking pretty seriously about what mitigations/changes are needed, even if a finalized report would take longer.
I think either way most of the articles you point to do more good than harm. Being more silent on the matter would be worse.
I’d hope that the investigation would be conducted mostly by an independent, reputable entity even if commissioned by EA organizations. Also, “EA” isn’t a fully homogeneous entity and I’d hope that the people commissioning the investigation might be more cool-headed than the average Forum poster.
Just for some perspective here, the DOJ could be pursuing SBF for wire fraud, which comes with a maximum sentence of twenty years. FTX’s bankruptcy couldn’t be construed as a mistake past the first day or so of last week, and this is still very generous. I find that this forum has consistently underestimated how grievous the actions taken by SBF, Alameda and FTX have been compared to the individuals I know who work in finance or crypto.
https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/11/13/could-sam-bankman-fried-go-to-prison-for-the-ftx-disaster/
That’s a max of 20 years per count, by the way. If there was massive fraud, hard to accomplish that in only a single count of wire fraud...
Which part of my comment did you find as underestimating how grievous SBF/Alameda/FTX’s actions were? (I’m genuinely unsure)
Sorry for the confusion, I was adding on to your comment. I agree with you obviously. It was more a statement on the forum over the past five-six days.
As far as I was concerned, by 24-36 hours(D+1-D+1.5) after the liquidity crisis turned fraud, I already raised the hypothesis of outright stealing and fraud to serious attention, and 48-72 hours after the crisis first broke (D+2-D+3) I assumed fraud and stealing was happening there. I also was right to distrust crypto several months before, because it’s very structure lends it to fraud, with no other legal use.
Links here:
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/05/why-this-computer-scientist-says-all-cryptocurrency-should-die-in-a-fire
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2021/04/why-cryptocurrency-is-a-giant-fraud