I agree with these but they also reinforce the fact that “Effective altruism” as a category is quite unwieldy. “too focused on the measurable rather than unquantifiable benefits”—well, we have a huge chunk of people calling themselves EA’s who mostly care about totally unquantifiable GCR research. Simiarly for Ultilitarianism and comparing animal and human suffering or other such notions. The “4 causes” commonly identified with EA have quite distinct weaknesses and it would be good (in my view) if people started assessing them on their own merits and not lumping them under one banner.
Nitpick: You can’t count the global catastrophes (yep, still zero for this decade) but you might be able to tell if it’s working in other ways… Maybe. But yeah, I agree that that’s the big weakness of GCR research.
Asteroid/comet impact, super volcanic eruptions, and even nuclear war risks are quantifiable within an order of magnitude or two: link. There are additional uncertainties in the cost and efficacy of interventions such as storing food or alternate foods. However, if you value future generations, one-three orders of magnitude uncertainty is not a significant barrier to making a quantified case.
I agree with these but they also reinforce the fact that “Effective altruism” as a category is quite unwieldy. “too focused on the measurable rather than unquantifiable benefits”—well, we have a huge chunk of people calling themselves EA’s who mostly care about totally unquantifiable GCR research. Simiarly for Ultilitarianism and comparing animal and human suffering or other such notions. The “4 causes” commonly identified with EA have quite distinct weaknesses and it would be good (in my view) if people started assessing them on their own merits and not lumping them under one banner.
Nitpick: You can’t count the global catastrophes (yep, still zero for this decade) but you might be able to tell if it’s working in other ways… Maybe. But yeah, I agree that that’s the big weakness of GCR research.
Asteroid/comet impact, super volcanic eruptions, and even nuclear war risks are quantifiable within an order of magnitude or two: link. There are additional uncertainties in the cost and efficacy of interventions such as storing food or alternate foods. However, if you value future generations, one-three orders of magnitude uncertainty is not a significant barrier to making a quantified case.