Nitpick: You can’t count the global catastrophes (yep, still zero for this decade) but you might be able to tell if it’s working in other ways… Maybe. But yeah, I agree that that’s the big weakness of GCR research.
Asteroid/comet impact, super volcanic eruptions, and even nuclear war risks are quantifiable within an order of magnitude or two: link. There are additional uncertainties in the cost and efficacy of interventions such as storing food or alternate foods. However, if you value future generations, one-three orders of magnitude uncertainty is not a significant barrier to making a quantified case.
Nitpick: You can’t count the global catastrophes (yep, still zero for this decade) but you might be able to tell if it’s working in other ways… Maybe. But yeah, I agree that that’s the big weakness of GCR research.
Asteroid/comet impact, super volcanic eruptions, and even nuclear war risks are quantifiable within an order of magnitude or two: link. There are additional uncertainties in the cost and efficacy of interventions such as storing food or alternate foods. However, if you value future generations, one-three orders of magnitude uncertainty is not a significant barrier to making a quantified case.