I’m also interested in using scoring rules for actual tournaments, so some thoughts on that:
This scoring rule incentivizes people to predict on questions for which their credence is closer to the extremes, rather than on questions where their credence is closer to even.
The rule is is some ways analogous to an automatic market maker which resets for each participant, which is an interesting idea. You could use a set-up such as this to elicit probabilities from forecasters, and give them points/money in the process.
You could start your bits somewhere other than at 50⁄50 (this would be equivalent to starting your automatic market maker somewhere else).
One other thought I’ve had in this area is “auctioning” predictions, so that whoever is willing to assign the most bits of confidence to their prediction (the highest “bitter”) gets exclusive payoffs. I’m not sure what this would be useful for though. Maybe you award a contract for some really important task to whoever is most confident they will be able to fulfill the contract.
This has beautiful elements.
I’m also interested in using scoring rules for actual tournaments, so some thoughts on that:
This scoring rule incentivizes people to predict on questions for which their credence is closer to the extremes, rather than on questions where their credence is closer to even.
The rule is is some ways analogous to an automatic market maker which resets for each participant, which is an interesting idea. You could use a set-up such as this to elicit probabilities from forecasters, and give them points/money in the process.
You could start your bits somewhere other than at 50⁄50 (this would be equivalent to starting your automatic market maker somewhere else).
Thanks for the insightful comments.
One other thought I’ve had in this area is “auctioning” predictions, so that whoever is willing to assign the most bits of confidence to their prediction (the highest “bitter”) gets exclusive payoffs. I’m not sure what this would be useful for though. Maybe you award a contract for some really important task to whoever is most confident they will be able to fulfill the contract.
The auctioning scheme might not end up being proper, though