One other thought I’ve had in this area is “auctioning” predictions, so that whoever is willing to assign the most bits of confidence to their prediction (the highest “bitter”) gets exclusive payoffs. I’m not sure what this would be useful for though. Maybe you award a contract for some really important task to whoever is most confident they will be able to fulfill the contract.
Thanks for the insightful comments.
One other thought I’ve had in this area is “auctioning” predictions, so that whoever is willing to assign the most bits of confidence to their prediction (the highest “bitter”) gets exclusive payoffs. I’m not sure what this would be useful for though. Maybe you award a contract for some really important task to whoever is most confident they will be able to fulfill the contract.
The auctioning scheme might not end up being proper, though