We have strong reasons to think we know what the likely sources of existential risk are—as @Sean_o_h’s new paper lays out very clearly.
Looked at the paper. The abstract says:
In all cases, an outcome as extreme as human extinction would require events or developments that either have been of very low probability historically or are entirely unprecedented. This introduces deep uncertainty and methodological challenges to the study of the topic. This review provides an overview of potential human extinction causes considered plausible in the current academic literature...
So I think you are overstating it a bit, i.e., it’s hard to support statements about existential risks coming from classified risks vs unknown unknowns/black swans. But if I’m getting the wrong impression I’m happy to read the paper in depth.
Not at all correct—and you clearly started the quote one sentence too late! “Potential causes of human extinction can be loosely grouped into exogenous threats such as an asteroid impact and anthropogenic threats such as war or a catastrophic physics accident. “
So the point of the abstract is that anthropogenic risks, ie. the ones that the next sentence calls “events or developments that either have been of very low probability historically or are entirely unprecedented,” are the critical ones, which is why they are a large focus of the paper.
Looked at the paper. The abstract says:
So I think you are overstating it a bit, i.e., it’s hard to support statements about existential risks coming from classified risks vs unknown unknowns/black swans. But if I’m getting the wrong impression I’m happy to read the paper in depth.
Not at all correct—and you clearly started the quote one sentence too late! “Potential causes of human extinction can be loosely grouped into exogenous threats such as an asteroid impact and anthropogenic threats such as war or a catastrophic physics accident. “
So the point of the abstract is that anthropogenic risks, ie. the ones that the next sentence calls “events or developments that either have been of very low probability historically or are entirely unprecedented,” are the critical ones, which is why they are a large focus of the paper.