I agree that the examples you list are ones where organizing and protest played a large role, and I agree that it’s effectively impossible to know the counterfactual—but I was thinking of the other examples, several where there was no organizing and protest, but which happened anyways—which seems like clear evidence that they are contributory and helpful but not necessary factors. On the other hand, effectiveness is very hard to gauge!
The conclusion is that organizing is likely or even clearly positive—but it’s evidently not required, if other factors are present, which is why I thought it was overstated.
I agree that the examples you list are ones where organizing and protest played a large role, and I agree that it’s effectively impossible to know the counterfactual—but I was thinking of the other examples, several where there was no organizing and protest, but which happened anyways—which seems like clear evidence that they are contributory and helpful but not necessary factors. On the other hand, effectiveness is very hard to gauge!
The conclusion is that organizing is likely or even clearly positive—but it’s evidently not required, if other factors are present, which is why I thought it was overstated.
Yep I agree with that