Interactive consensus aggregator for squiggle estimates
If analysts Alice and Bob each write cost-effectiveness analysis of charity C, then donor Eve ought to be able to input relative trust quantities informing how to weight Alice’s estimate against Bob’s. In other words, if Eve thinks Alice is twice as trustworthy or competent as Bob, then the MVP would return the squiggle string mixture(alice, bob, [2, 1]).
Interactive worldview substituter for squiggle estimates
Building on the above, it would be nice if Alice and Bob had agreed to use a set of input variables, such as background quantities like the state of a manifold market on some ML benchmark or a global count of malaria cases. This set of input variables can also be a worldview, or quantities which upon inspection are also squiggle estimates. Then, it would be nice to be able to trivially substitute these input worldviews, if you want to look at how you expect your cost-effectiveness analysis to change over time or if you think Bob has a more calibrated background worldview but prefer Alice’s fermstimate of charity C’s impact.
I’d love to see things like this. I plan on attending, mostly to help out others interested in anything around QURI/Squiggle/forecasting/epistemic tech
Interactive consensus aggregator for squiggle estimates
If analysts Alice and Bob each write cost-effectiveness analysis of charity C, then donor Eve ought to be able to input relative trust quantities informing how to weight Alice’s estimate against Bob’s. In other words, if Eve thinks Alice is twice as trustworthy or competent as Bob, then the MVP would return the squiggle string
mixture(alice, bob, [2, 1])
.Interactive worldview substituter for squiggle estimates
Building on the above, it would be nice if Alice and Bob had agreed to use a set of input variables, such as background quantities like the state of a manifold market on some ML benchmark or a global count of malaria cases. This set of input variables can also be a worldview, or quantities which upon inspection are also squiggle estimates. Then, it would be nice to be able to trivially substitute these input worldviews, if you want to look at how you expect your cost-effectiveness analysis to change over time or if you think Bob has a more calibrated background worldview but prefer Alice’s fermstimate of charity C’s impact.
I’d love to see things like this. I plan on attending, mostly to help out others interested in anything around QURI/Squiggle/forecasting/epistemic tech
Awesome!! Looking forward to having you there, Ozzie.
Any updates on how this went? (I meant to follow up and participate more, but I was not able to do so).
Yes! Lessons Learned here.
Are there any links or notes specific to this particular project, the squiggle consensus cea builder thing?