Thanks, Xing. The bet resolves as long as FRED reports the unemployment rate, even if this is not reliable. We did not discuss what would happen if FRED does not report the unemployment rate. In this case, we could agree to use another similar source.
...it occurs to me that it’s worrying in very different directions if FRED changes what or how they report. If they stop reporting or data collection is halted for political reasons, I’d expect that we either pick an arbiter to make the call, or agree to call the bet off.
I see. By default, I think the bet should resolve as specified, “as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)”. However, I would be happy to do as you suggested if we agree there was a significant change in the reliability or definition of the unemployment rate reported by FRED.
What if there is no reliable data by that time?
Thanks, Xing. The bet resolves as long as FRED reports the unemployment rate, even if this is not reliable. We did not discuss what would happen if FRED does not report the unemployment rate. In this case, we could agree to use another similar source.
...it occurs to me that it’s worrying in very different directions if FRED changes what or how they report. If they stop reporting or data collection is halted for political reasons, I’d expect that we either pick an arbiter to make the call, or agree to call the bet off.
I see. By default, I think the bet should resolve as specified, “as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)”. However, I would be happy to do as you suggested if we agree there was a significant change in the reliability or definition of the unemployment rate reported by FRED.