Human’s can’t actually implement Bayesian probability—or can they?—, e.g., when encountering black swans, it’s hard to perform an update when our prior probability to the event was ~0. Similarly, the amount of computation needed for formal Bayesian updates seems too high for normal humans in the course of their day.
What are your thoughts on what humans should do to better approximate Bayesian updating? Should humans even be trying to imitate Bayesian updating rather than doing something else (e.g., relying on scenarios?)
Human’s can’t actually implement Bayesian probability—or can they?—, e.g., when encountering black swans, it’s hard to perform an update when our prior probability to the event was ~0. Similarly, the amount of computation needed for formal Bayesian updates seems too high for normal humans in the course of their day.
What are your thoughts on what humans should do to better approximate Bayesian updating? Should humans even be trying to imitate Bayesian updating rather than doing something else (e.g., relying on scenarios?)