Next weekend at EAGx Australia I’ll be doing a live 80,000 Hours Podcast recording with philosopher Alan Hájek, who has spent his life studying the nature of probability, counterfactuals, Bayesianism, expected value and more.
What should I ask him?
He’s he author of among other papers:
Waging war on Pascal’s wager
The reference class problem is your problem too
Interpretations of probability
Arguments for—or against—Probabilism?
Most counterfactuals are false
The nature of uncertainty
Topics he’d likely be able to comment on include:
problems with orthodox expected utility theory, especially involving infinite and undefined utilities or expectations
risk aversion, whether it’s justified, and how best to spell it out
how to set base rate priors for unknown quantities
his heuristics for doing good philosophy (about which he has lots to say) / how to spot bad philosophical arguments
See more about Professor Hájek here: https://philosophy.cass.anu.edu.au/people/professor-alan-h-jek