Humans don’t like shocks. Explosive growth would definitely be a shock. We tend to like very gradual changes, or brief flirts with big change.
Speaking generally, it is true that humans are frequently hesitant to change the status quo, and economic shocks can be quite scary to people. This provides one reason to think that people will try to stop explosive growth, and slow down the rate of change.
On the other hand, it’s important to recognize the individual incentives involved here. On an individual, personal level, explosive growth is equivalent to a dramatic rise in real income over a short period of time. Suppose you were given the choice of increasing your current income by several-fold over the next few years. For example, if your real income is currently $100,000/year, then you would see it increase to $300,000/year in two years. Would you push back against this change? Would this rise in your personal income be too fast for your tastes? Would you try to slow it down?
Even if explosive growth is dramatic and scary on a collective and abstract level, it is not clearly bad on an individual level. Indeed, it seems quite clear to me that most people would be perfectly happy to see their incomes rise dramatically, even at a rate that far exceeded historical norms, unless they recognized a substantial and grave risk that would accompany this rise in their personal income.
If we assume that people collectively follow what is in each of their individual interests, then we should conclude that incentives are pretty strongly in favor of explosive growth (at least when done with low risk), despite the fact that this change would be dramatic and large.
I agree that’s a reason to believe people would be in favor of such a radical change (and Shulman makes the same point). I don’t think it’s nearly as strong a reason as you and Shulman seem to think it is, because of the broader changes that would come with this dramatic increase in income. We’re talking about a dramatic restructuring of the economic and social order. We’re probably talking about, among other things, the end of work and with that, probably the end of earning your place in your community. We’re talking about frictionless effectively free substitutes for everything we might have received from the informal economy, the economy of gifts and reciprocity. What does that do to friendship and family? I don’t want to know.
It appears to me there are plenty of examples of people sacrificing large potential increases in their income in order to preserve the social order they are accustomed to. (I would imagine e.g. conservatives in e.g. the Rust Belt not moving to a coastal city with clearly better income prospects being a good example, but admit I haven’t studied the issue in-depth).
Basically, I think this focus on income is myopic.
Speaking generally, it is true that humans are frequently hesitant to change the status quo, and economic shocks can be quite scary to people. This provides one reason to think that people will try to stop explosive growth, and slow down the rate of change.
On the other hand, it’s important to recognize the individual incentives involved here. On an individual, personal level, explosive growth is equivalent to a dramatic rise in real income over a short period of time. Suppose you were given the choice of increasing your current income by several-fold over the next few years. For example, if your real income is currently $100,000/year, then you would see it increase to $300,000/year in two years. Would you push back against this change? Would this rise in your personal income be too fast for your tastes? Would you try to slow it down?
Even if explosive growth is dramatic and scary on a collective and abstract level, it is not clearly bad on an individual level. Indeed, it seems quite clear to me that most people would be perfectly happy to see their incomes rise dramatically, even at a rate that far exceeded historical norms, unless they recognized a substantial and grave risk that would accompany this rise in their personal income.
If we assume that people collectively follow what is in each of their individual interests, then we should conclude that incentives are pretty strongly in favor of explosive growth (at least when done with low risk), despite the fact that this change would be dramatic and large.
I agree that’s a reason to believe people would be in favor of such a radical change (and Shulman makes the same point). I don’t think it’s nearly as strong a reason as you and Shulman seem to think it is, because of the broader changes that would come with this dramatic increase in income. We’re talking about a dramatic restructuring of the economic and social order. We’re probably talking about, among other things, the end of work and with that, probably the end of earning your place in your community. We’re talking about frictionless effectively free substitutes for everything we might have received from the informal economy, the economy of gifts and reciprocity. What does that do to friendship and family? I don’t want to know.
It appears to me there are plenty of examples of people sacrificing large potential increases in their income in order to preserve the social order they are accustomed to. (I would imagine e.g. conservatives in e.g. the Rust Belt not moving to a coastal city with clearly better income prospects being a good example, but admit I haven’t studied the issue in-depth).
Basically, I think this focus on income is myopic.