Why this might be of interest to EAs: Forecasting is a tool to better understand the world. EAs are generally interested in that tool, particularly as it related to using it to improve the world. As such, developments in forecasting as a field might also be of interest. For example, in this edition I briefly review Open Philanthropy’s grant of $8M given to INFER.
Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
Link post
Highlights
PredictIt nears its probable demise
American Civics Exchange offers political betting to Americans using weird legal loophole
Forecasting community member Avraham Eisenberg arrested for $100M+ theft (a).
Forecasting Research Institute launches publicly
Blogpost suggests that GiveWell use uncertainty, wins $20k
Contrarian offers $500k bet, then chickens out
Walter Frick writes a resource to introduce journalists to prediction markets
Yearly feedback form
Why this might be of interest to EAs: Forecasting is a tool to better understand the world. EAs are generally interested in that tool, particularly as it related to using it to improve the world. As such, developments in forecasting as a field might also be of interest. For example, in this edition I briefly review Open Philanthropy’s grant of $8M given to INFER.
Link to the post: <https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-for-november>.