Part of my thinking here is that this would be a mistake: focus and attention are some of the most valuable things, and splitting your focus is generally not good.
I feel pretty flattered to be even vaguely categorized with all of those folks, but I think it’s pretty unlikely of working out that well (it almost always is). If I was pretty sure (>30%) I could make a company as large as Apple/Twitter/Tesla/YC, I’d be pretty happy to go that route.
I’ve chatted to hundreds of entrepreneurs and tried this, arguably, twice before. That said, if later it’s predicted that going the more direct business way would be better for total expected value, I could definitely be open to changing later.
Basically, though it’s a bit extra short when weighted for what we can change. Transformative narrow AI or other transformative technologies could also apply.
Part of my thinking here is that this would be a mistake: focus and attention are some of the most valuable things, and splitting your focus is generally not good.
This seems highly person-dependent: definitely true for some people, definitely not true for others.
Consider Steve Jobs running Pixar & Apple simultaneously
Consider Jack Dorsey running Square & Twitter simultaneously
Consider Elon Musk running Tesla, SpaceX, and a variety of smaller projects simultaneously
Consider Sam Altman advising & evaluating 100+ YC startups whilst being the de facto CEO of OpenAI
Also, effective administrators & executives tend to multitask heavily, e.g. Robert Moses.
I feel pretty flattered to be even vaguely categorized with all of those folks, but I think it’s pretty unlikely of working out that well (it almost always is). If I was pretty sure (>30%) I could make a company as large as Apple/Twitter/Tesla/YC, I’d be pretty happy to go that route.
I’ve chatted to hundreds of entrepreneurs and tried this, arguably, twice before. That said, if later it’s predicted that going the more direct business way would be better for total expected value, I could definitely be open to changing later.
Another thing to note: I’m optimizing on a time-horizon of around 10-30 years. Making a business first could easily take 6-20 years.
Does this flow from your AGI timeline estimate?
Basically, though it’s a bit extra short when weighted for what we can change. Transformative narrow AI or other transformative technologies could also apply.