I feel like voicing that I centrally expect AI to continue to have bigger real-world impacts, but not get very weird until the 2030s. I think worlds where things go faster than that are a serious enough possibility to take seriously, but I think that the apparent zeitgeist suggests timelines which are a bit more aggressive than I think is justified.
The reason I want to say something is that I sort of suspect there are a bunch of people in a similar epistemic position—where it doesn’t seem like a priority to properly explore what % to put on craziness this decade; nor to get into big arguments about whether the zeitgeist is slightly off—but for whom your comment might feel like something of a trap.
Given the timelines that are most popular these days, there will have to be a reckoning by the end of this decade, one way or the other.
This is a really important comment. I hope there will be enough humility to reconsider if it doesn’t happen...
I feel like voicing that I centrally expect AI to continue to have bigger real-world impacts, but not get very weird until the 2030s. I think worlds where things go faster than that are a serious enough possibility to take seriously, but I think that the apparent zeitgeist suggests timelines which are a bit more aggressive than I think is justified.
The reason I want to say something is that I sort of suspect there are a bunch of people in a similar epistemic position—where it doesn’t seem like a priority to properly explore what % to put on craziness this decade; nor to get into big arguments about whether the zeitgeist is slightly off—but for whom your comment might feel like something of a trap.