This looks like it could be an excellent and helpful tool. I’ll probably try using it to choose bet sizes at some point. I have a general critique though. I think it generally makes sense to treat your wealth as including a discounted sum of future income. For example, most young people have very little wealth on paper, and yet it is often highly rational for them to put substantial amounts of their money in the stock market, even though it’s more risky than a savings account. The same is true for Manifold users. They can usually make lots of “income” by creating markets, completing quests, and purchasing mana directly. If you exclude these things from the calculation, I predict you’ll often end up with an unreasonably low tolerance for risk.
Easy fix: let the user pick a discounted sum of future income. It could also be calculated using some average over past daily income if that’s available to see.
This looks like it could be an excellent and helpful tool. I’ll probably try using it to choose bet sizes at some point. I have a general critique though. I think it generally makes sense to treat your wealth as including a discounted sum of future income. For example, most young people have very little wealth on paper, and yet it is often highly rational for them to put substantial amounts of their money in the stock market, even though it’s more risky than a savings account. The same is true for Manifold users. They can usually make lots of “income” by creating markets, completing quests, and purchasing mana directly. If you exclude these things from the calculation, I predict you’ll often end up with an unreasonably low tolerance for risk.
Easy fix: let the user pick a discounted sum of future income. It could also be calculated using some average over past daily income if that’s available to see.