I think it would be good if you elucidate a bit on this question. Are you asking about longtermist interventions vs interventions trying to have an effect on the near-term future? If so, many EAs already favour the latter set of interventions, so you may want to clarify who you mean by “we”. And I think it would be good to expand on what you’ve written in other ways as well.
Thanks Stefan, I clarified the ‘we’ but let me know if there are other changes that could make it clearer. I guess I was treating it as a jumping off point for thinking about the trajectories of the field of Longtermist research/ interventions in the future more than a very specific forecasting question (hence the vagaries). But if that means people won’t be as keen on answering I can shape it up a bit.
I think it would be good if you elucidate a bit on this question. Are you asking about longtermist interventions vs interventions trying to have an effect on the near-term future? If so, many EAs already favour the latter set of interventions, so you may want to clarify who you mean by “we”. And I think it would be good to expand on what you’ve written in other ways as well.
Thanks Stefan, I clarified the ‘we’ but let me know if there are other changes that could make it clearer. I guess I was treating it as a jumping off point for thinking about the trajectories of the field of Longtermist research/ interventions in the future more than a very specific forecasting question (hence the vagaries). But if that means people won’t be as keen on answering I can shape it up a bit.