This is my best attempt at summarizing a reasonable outsider’s view of the current state of affairs. Before publication, I had this sanity checked (though not necessarily endorsed) by an EA researcher with more context. Apologies in advance if it misrepresents the actual state of affairs, but that’s precisely the thing I’m trying to clarify for myself and others.
I just want to note that I think this question is great and does not misrepresent the actual state of affairs.
I do think there’s hope for some quantitative estimates even in the speculative cases; for example Open Phil has mentioned that they are investigating the “value of the last dollar” to serve as a benchmark against which to compare current spending (though to my knowledge they haven’t said how they’re investigating it).
I do think there’s hope for some quantitative estimates even in the speculative cases; for example Open Phil has mentioned that they are investigating the “value of the last dollar” to serve as a benchmark against which to compare current spending (though to my knowledge they haven’t said how they’re investigating it).
Ajeya explains it in her 80k interview and the result is:
“this estimate is roughly $200 trillion per world saved, in expectation. So, it’s actually like billions of dollars for some small fraction of the world saved, and dividing that out gets you to $200 trillion per world saved. This is quite good in the scheme of things, because it’s like less than two years’ worth of gross world product. It’s like everyone in the world working together on this one problem for like 18 months, to save the world.”
I just want to note that I think this question is great and does not misrepresent the actual state of affairs.
I do think there’s hope for some quantitative estimates even in the speculative cases; for example Open Phil has mentioned that they are investigating the “value of the last dollar” to serve as a benchmark against which to compare current spending (though to my knowledge they haven’t said how they’re investigating it).
Ajeya explains it in her 80k interview and the result is:
“this estimate is roughly $200 trillion per world saved, in expectation. So, it’s actually like billions of dollars for some small fraction of the world saved, and dividing that out gets you to $200 trillion per world saved. This is quite good in the scheme of things, because it’s like less than two years’ worth of gross world product. It’s like everyone in the world working together on this one problem for like 18 months, to save the world.”